2023-12-25-GSMA-2023年中东和北非移动经济报告_47页_4mb

GSMA Summary

Core Content

The GSMA is a global organisation representing mobile operators and organisations across the mobile ecosystem. It focuses on innovation, policy, technology, and interoperability to support positive business environments and societal change. The organisation's three pillars include Connectivity for Good, Industry Services and Solutions, and Outreach. It hosts major events like MWC and M360 to bring together the mobile ecosystem.

GSMA Intelligence is the definitive source of mobile operator data, analysis, and forecasts. It provides industry reports and research, covering every operator group, network, and MVNO in every country worldwide. Its data is used by leading operators, vendors, regulators, financial institutions, and third-party industry players for strategic decision-making and long-term investment planning.

Key Trends

5G: The Next Wave

• By the end of November 2023, 23 mobile operators across nine MENA markets had launched commercial 5G services.
• 5G adoption exceeded 20% in six countries: Bahrain, Israel, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE.
• Operators are shifting focus to monetisation of 5G networks and expanding coverage to less densely populated areas.
• 5G FWA (Fixed Wireless Access) is the dominant use case in MENA, with operators like Zain Saudi Arabia offering it alongside mobile services.
• By 2030, three of the top 10 most penetrated 5G FWA markets globally will be in the Middle East: Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and the UAE.
• 5G SA and 5G-Advanced are key to supporting new market demands and enabling future use cases.

Operators Look to Monetise Tower Assets

• Traditionally, tower assets have been owned by mobile operators in MENA.
• Following STC's creation of Tawal in 2019, more operators are monetising underutilised tower assets.
• Independent tower companies are acquiring operator sites, using multi-tenancy to drive profitability.
• Operators are also spinning off infrastructure in partnership with private equity groups or issuing IPOs for tower assets.
• This strategy allows operators to reallocate capital towards higher growth areas.

GCC Telcos Target Stakes in European Counterparts

• International expansion is a core growth and diversification strategy for GCC telcos.
• Recent trends show a growing interest in European operators, with e& and STC leading the charge.
• The strategic rationale is to become global players in the TMT (Technology, Media, Telecommunications) space in terms of scale and innovation.

The Shift to Circularity Gathers Momentum

• The concept of circularity is becoming a key focus for policymakers and industry stakeholders due to concerns about e-waste and resource depletion.
• The region's role as the host of COP28 in Dubai has amplified this focus.
• Governments and industry participants are creating new channels and suppliers for collecting, refurbishing, and reselling devices and network equipment.

Regulatory Enablement and Fintech Hubs Fuel Fintech Growth

• MENA has experienced a significant surge in fintech services due to regulatory enablement and increased investments.
• Regulatory sandboxes and fintech hubs have played a key role in this growth.
• Digital payment solutions, including contactless payments, open banking, and BNPL services, are gaining prominence.
• Mobile operators are actively involved in the fintech space, expanding access and inclusion for consumers and businesses through financial services products and partnerships.

Key Statistics and Projections

Mobile Subscribers and Penetration

• Unique mobile subscribers in MENA will grow by 135 million by 2030, reaching 550 million.
• North Africa will account for nearly 45% of new subscribers.
• Mobile penetration in MENA will reach 77% by 2030, higher than the global average of 73%.
• GCC states have an average penetration rate of 89%, while other markets like Comoros, Djibouti, and Somalia have rates below 40%.

Mobile Internet Penetration

• Mobile internet penetration in MENA reached 51% in 2022, narrowing the usage gap to 44%.
• The availability of affordable data plans and cheap internet-enabled handsets is driving mobile internet adoption.
• Online content (gaming, video streaming, e-commerce, social networking) will be a major driver of mobile internet adoption.

5G Adoption

• 5G will account for half of total mobile connections in MENA by 2030.
• GCC states are among the global leaders in 5G adoption, with an expected 95% average adoption rate by 2030.
• 5G adoption in the rest of MENA will lag behind the global average by 10 percentage points due to delayed commercial launches in key markets like Turkey and North Africa.

Smartphone Adoption

• By 2030, there will be over 800 million smartphone connections in MENA.
• Smartphone adoption will reach 90% in MENA, slightly below the global average of 91%.
• The biggest increase in adoption levels will come from Arab states outside the GCC, such as Djibouti and Somalia.

Mobile Data Traffic

• Mobile data traffic in MENA will triple in the next five years, rising by 27% due to migration to 4G and uptake of 5G.
• Everyday digital services, gaming apps, extended reality, and video are major contributors to data consumption.

Licensed Cellular IoT Connections

• Licensed cellular IoT connections in MENA will grow by 29 million between 2022 and 2030, reaching 80 million.
• Turkey and Iran will account for more than half of these connections.
• IoT is seen as a key success factor for operators, with 80% of MENA operators considering it 'very' or 'extremely' important.

Revenue and Investment

• Moderate revenue growth is expected in MENA as operators diversify services.
• Zain reported a 52% year-on-year uplift in digital services revenue and 28% annual growth in B2B revenues.
• STC announced an additional $300 million investment in STV, a technology venture capital fund in Saudi Arabia.
• Operators will spend more than $90 billion on their networks during 2023-2030, with a focus on extending 5G coverage and supporting 5G FWA and SA use cases.

Economic Contribution

• In 2022, the mobile sector added $370 billion of economic value to the MENA economy, representing 5.6% of GDP.
• Mobile operators contributed $40 billion, while productivity effects contributed $300 billion.
• By 2030, mobile's contribution to the MENA economy will reach almost $440 billion, driven by continued expansion and improvements in productivity and efficiency.

Employment Impact

• The MENA mobile ecosystem supported over 800,000 jobs in 2022, including 380,000 direct jobs and 450,000 indirect jobs.

Fiscal Contribution

• In 2022, the mobile sector contributed $20 billion to the public sector through taxes.
• This includes $10 billion from services VAT, sales taxes, and excise duties, and $5 billion from handset VAT, sales taxes, excises, and customs duties.

5G Economic Impact

• 5G will add approximately $60 billion to the MENA economy in 2030, or 13% of the overall economic impact of mobile.
• 5G benefits will focus on the services and manufacturing sectors in 2030, with 48% of benefits expected from the services sector and 35% from manufacturing.

Conclusion

The mobile industry in MENA is poised for significant growth and transformation, driven by 5G adoption, IoT expansion, and diversification of services. With a focus on innovation, sustainability, and global partnerships, the region is expected to become a key player in the global mobile ecosystem, contributing substantially to economic growth and employment.