2015年-世界发展银行全球_Ukraine_Recovery_and_Peacebuiding_Assessment___Analysis_of_Crisis_Impacts_and_Needs_in_Eastern_Ukraine_Volume_1_Synthesis_Report_76页_4mb

Ukraine Recovery and Peacebuilding Assessment Summary

Core Content

This Ukraine Recovery and Peacebuilding Assessment (RPA) is a collaborative effort by the European Union (EU), the United Nations (UN), and the World Bank Group (WBG). It focuses on the conflict-affected areas of eastern Ukraine, including Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Dnipropetrovsk, and Kharkiv. The assessment aims to identify recovery and peacebuilding priorities, outline strategic components, and propose institutional arrangements and financing modalities to support these efforts.

The report is structured in two volumes. Volume I provides a synthesis of key findings, while Volume II includes detailed assessments for each of the three main strategic components.

Main Findings

Conflict Overview

• Political and Security Context: The conflict in eastern Ukraine began in 2014, following the Euromaidan protests in Kyiv and the Crimea referendum. The Minsk Protocol (2014) and its renewed ceasefire (2015) have not resolved the situation.
• Human Impact: Over 5.2 million people in the Donbas region were affected, with 3.9 million directly impacted. As of February 2015, 1.6 million people were displaced, and 7,000 deaths and 18,000 injuries were reported.
• Economic Impact: The conflict has severely disrupted economic activity, with SMEs and industries in the Donbas experiencing 80–90% decline in operations. Exports to Russia dropped by 30% in Donetsk and 43% in Luhansk in the first 11 months of 2014.
• Social Impact: Social cohesion and trust have deteriorated, and displacement has worsened pre-existing regional divides and prejudices.

Key Strategic Components

1. Restore Critical Infrastructure and Social Services

• Total Estimated Needs: US$1.26 billion
• Priority Areas:
  • Transport (US$558.2 million)
  • Health (US$184.2 million)
  • Energy (US$78.9 million)
  • Water and sanitation (US$40.1 million)
  • Public buildings and housing (US$27.2 million)
• Approach:
  • Focus on reconstructing infrastructure to better standards (Building Back Better and Smarter).
  • Restore service delivery to affected populations.
  • Address indirect impacts such as staff shortages and loss of equipment.
• Expected Outcomes:
  • Improved living conditions for IDPs and host communities.
  • Restoration of trust in the state and public services.
  • Facilitation of IDP return and repatriation.

2. Promote Economic Recovery

• Total Estimated Needs: US$135.5 million
• Priority Areas:
  • Employment (US$40.0 million)
  • Productive capacities and livelihoods (US$33.0 million)
  • Local economic planning (US$7.5 million)
  • SMEs and private sector (US$30.0 million)
  • Financial services (US$25.0 million)
• Approach:
  • Short-term employment opportunities.
  • Strengthening local economic planning.
  • Stimulating SMEs and private sector.
  • Facilitating access to financial services.
• Expected Outcomes:
  • Reduced vulnerability of conflict-affected populations.
  • Increased societal resilience.
  • Rebuilding local economies and restoring social trust.

3. Strengthen Social Resilience, Peacebuilding, and Community Security

• Total Estimated Needs: US$126.8 million
• Priority Areas:
  • Understanding vulnerability and risk (US$2.5 million)
  • Promoting social cohesion and trust (US$19.7 million)
  • Promoting tolerance through dialogue (US$11.4 million)
  • Protecting conflict-affected populations (US$5.8 million)
  • Promoting access to justice (US$8.1 million)
  • Legal assistance (US$6.6 million)
  • Psychosocial support (US$28.4 million)
  • Community security (US$23.9 million)
  • DDR (Disarmament, Demobilization, and Reintegration) (US$20.4 million)
• Approach:
  • Promote reconciliation and peacebuilding.
  • Enhance community security.
  • Support psychosocial and legal services.
  • Encourage dialogue and tolerance.
• Expected Outcomes:
  • Restoration of social fabric.
  • Improved community security.
  • Increased access to justice.
  • Promotion of trust and cooperation between IDPs and host communities.

Transversal Issues

• Population Displacement:
  • Over 1.6 million IDPs in Ukraine, with 7,000 deaths and 18,000 wounded reported.
  • Preschools, roads, and sewage systems are under significant strain due to the influx of displaced people.
• Local Governance:
  • Intragovernmental coordination is essential to ensure effective implementation.
  • A Donbas Recovery Coordination Committee is recommended to lead and coordinate recovery efforts.
• Gender:
  • Gender-based violence and gender-specific needs must be addressed.
• Human Rights:
  • Protection of conflict-affected populations is a key concern.
  • Law enforcement and justice institutions are under-resourced and ill-equipped.

Institutional Arrangements

• Government Leadership:
  • The Government of Ukraine (GoU) must take a central role in the RPA process.
  • A formal coordination structure with clear mandate and broad membership is recommended.
• Monitoring and Evaluation:
  • A mid-term review after 12 months and a six-monthly progress review is proposed.
  • Participatory M&E is encouraged to involve the conflict-affected population.
• Transparency:
  • Public access to M&E outputs is necessary for transparency and credibility.

Financing Strategy

• Total Estimated Financing Needs: US$1.52 billion
• Financing Instruments:
  • Government budgetary allocations.
  • Direct budget support from international partners.
  • Multi-Partner Trust Fund (MPTF) for pooled grant financing.
  • International loans.
  • Support for the financial sector via participation in specialized instruments and guarantees.
  • Coordination mechanisms with private sector investments.
• Principles:
  • Predictability and harmonization of funding.
  • Alignment with national and RPA priorities.
  • Rapid disbursement to ensure timely implementation.
• Challenges:
  • Uncertainty about the conflict's future.
  • Need for flexibility in financing and implementation.

Conclusion

• The RPA is an initial framework for short- to medium-term recovery.
• It is essential to initiate key recommendations immediately, regardless of the conflict's status.
• Reconciliation and peacebuilding are crucial for sustainable recovery.
• Institutional coordination and flexible financing are required to implement recovery efforts effectively.