20120331-IEA-CCS_Retrofit_46页_2mb

Summary of "CCS Retrofit: Analysis of the Globally Installed Coal-Fired Power Plant Fleet"

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the potential for Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) retrofitting of the global coal-fired power plant fleet. It outlines the current and future size, age, and performance characteristics of the installed fleet, focusing on the feasibility and attractiveness of retrofitting CCS to existing plants. The study is conducted by the International Energy Agency (IEA) and highlights the importance of retrofitting in achieving global CO₂ emission reductions, particularly in light of the continued expansion of coal-fired power generation.

Main Objectives

• To evaluate the potential for CCS retrofitting of the global coal-fired power plant fleet.
• To provide an overview of the size, age, and performance profile of the fleet.
• To identify the most suitable candidates for CCS retrofitting based on technical, economic, and operational criteria.
• To highlight the limitations and uncertainties in the data and the feasibility of large-scale retrofitting.

Key Findings

• Global CO₂ Emissions: In 2010, the global coal-fired power plant fleet accounted for over 8.5 Gt of CO₂ emissions annually, representing about 25% of global anthropogenic CO₂ emissions.
• Future Expansion: IEA projections indicate that coal-fired power generation capacity is expected to increase by over 1000 GW by 2035.
• CCS Potential: The IEA Energy Technology Perspectives 2010 (ETP 2010) estimates that 114 GW of coal-fired capacity will need to be retrofitted with CCS by 2050 to achieve stabilization of global warming at the lowest cost.
• Retrofit Feasibility: Retrofitting CCS to existing plants is more costly and less efficient than building new plants with CCS, but it is still a critical option, especially for newer, larger, and more efficient units.
• Efficiency Threshold: A lower heating value (LHV) efficiency threshold of 35% (or about 33% in higher heating value (HHV)) is identified as the point below which retrofitting CCS becomes unattractive.
• Data Sources: The analysis is based on data from the WEPP database and IEA statistics, with some validation from other sources like eGRID and BNetzA.

Retrofit Assessment Criteria

• Size: Plants with a capacity of more than 100 MW are considered.
• Age: Plants younger than 30 years are more attractive for retrofitting.
• Performance Level: Supercritical and ultra-supercritical plants are more suitable due to their higher efficiency.
• Location: The study focuses on the top ten countries responsible for over 85% of global CO₂ emissions from coal and peat-based power generation.

Key Countries and Their Analysis

Limitations and Uncertainties

• Data Coverage: While databases like WEPP cover most plants, they may not include all units, especially in certain regions.
• Site-Specific Factors: The study does not account for site-specific constraints such as space, storage availability, and public acceptance.
• Efficiency Variability: Efficiency levels can vary significantly based on local conditions, maintenance, and operating regimes.
• Economic Considerations: Detailed economic analysis is not performed; instead, the study uses a range of criteria to approximate retrofit potential.

Conclusion

The study identifies that a large portion of the global coal-fired power plant fleet is suitable for CCS retrofitting, particularly those that are newer, larger, and more efficient. However, due to data limitations and site-specific challenges, the exact potential remains uncertain. The findings suggest that retrofitting is a crucial component in the global effort to reduce CO₂ emissions, especially in the context of existing infrastructure that is "locked-in" and cannot be easily replaced. The IEA emphasizes the need for a more comprehensive understanding of the technical, economic, and social aspects of CCS retrofitting to support future policy and investment decisions.