2025-05-27-Bernstein-美国食品尼尔森最新报告_四周销售额下降1.6_较上一个四周的增长1.2_环比下降_63页_23mb

U.S. Food Nielsen Report Summary (May 2025)

Overview

• 4-Week Sales Trend: Overall U.S. packaged food sales in measured channels (excluding private label [SMPL] and Beyond Meat [BYND]) declined by -1.6% YoY in the period ending May 17, 2025, which is below the -1.0% decline in the previous 12-week period.
• Price and Volume: Average weighted price growth was -0.0% YoY, and volume growth was -1.6% YoY.
• Distribution Points: Total distribution points increased by +0.7% YoY.

Sales Leaders & Laggards

• TopPerformers:
  • Hershey Co. (HSY): +10.5% YoY, driven by Chocolate Candy (+14.5%) and Non-Chocolate Candy (+10.5%).
  • Sara Lee Cakeries (MCN): +2.0% YoY, led by extracts and herbs/spices.
  • JM Smucker Co. (SJM): +1.0% YoY (Ground Coffee ex-Single Serve and Frozen Sandwiches).
• Laggards:
  • Beyond Meat (BYND): -18.2% YoY.
  • Kellogg's (K): -6.8% YoY, impacted by toaster pastries and potato chips.
  • Kraft Heinz Co. (KHC): -4.9% YoY (due to combination snacks and lunchmeat decline).

Key Insights by Category

Private Label Growth

• Market Share: Private label reached 21.0% market share in the latest 12 weeks (+12.9% weighted by company sales).
• Impact: Private label consistently outperforms branded sales, exerting pricing pressure on major brands.

Meat & Dairy Trends

• Fresh Meat: Tyson Foods (+0.6% YoY) led growth in fresh meat, but private labels are eroding share.
• Cheese: Kraft Heinz saw a slight decline (-0.2% YoY), while private label shares increased.

Snack & Candy Performance

• Non-Chocolate Candy: Mars and Hershey drove growth (+1.5% YoY and +1.0% YoY, respectively).
• Snack Bars: General Mills (+2.0% YoY) and Mondelez (+1.0% YoY) showed strength.

Investment Implications

• Outperform Ratings: Mondelez, Simply Good Foods, McCormick & Co., Tyson Foods, and Campbell Soup Co. are rated Outperform.
• Market-Perform: Beyond Meat, Kellogg Co. (K), Kraft Heinz Co. (KH), Smucker's, Hershey Co. (HSY), General Mills, Lamb Weston, and Conagra's are rated Market-Perform.
• Sector Challenges: Beyond Meat continues to face revenue declines, while staples like crackers and soup show slight deterioration.

Risks & Considerations

• Private Label Erosion: Growing at >5% YoY in many categories, with 21.0% overall market share, potentially margin-burdening branded players unless price-based value offsets volume gains.
• Category Volatility: Dairy substitutes (Greek yogurt) and frozen meals show mixed results, reflecting shifting consumer preferences.
• Pricing Dynamics: Despite minor YoY price increases overall (-0.0% YoY), private label remains a key competitive force in cost-sensitive segments.

This report underscores the divergent paths within the food industry, with premium players (e.g., Hershey, HSY, McCormick) capitalizing on specific trends, while staples face broader challenges from private label and weak consumer demand.