20260309-招银国际-4Q25_Preview_Resilient_key_metrics_with_modest_sequential_growth_amid_market_turbulence_8页_697kb

Futu Holdings (FUTU US) 4Q25 Preview Summary

Core Content and Key Insights

Futu Holdings (FUTU US) is set to release its 4Q25 results on March 12, pre-market. The stock has experienced a 13% decline YTD, underperforming the NASDAQ by 9ppts and trading at a 12x FY26E P/E multiple, significantly discounted compared to its global peers.

Despite market turbulence in the HK and US stock markets, Futu's key metrics are expected to remain resilient. The company is anticipated to see modest sequential growth, with new funded accounts expected to decline by 13% QoQ to 220k in 4Q25, but rise 3% YoY. The full-year addition of 940k new paying clients in FY25 is expected to bring the total number of paying clients to 3.35 million, well ahead of the management's target.

Total client assets are expected to remain stable QoQ at HK$1.23tn, driven by robust net inflows that offset MTM losses due to market volatility. The 4Q25 topline revenue is projected at HK$6.3bn, a 2% decline QoQ but 42% increase YoY. Net revenue is expected to be HK$5.5bn, highlighting cost efficiency.

GAAP and non-GAAP net profit for 4Q25 are forecasted at HK$3.2bn and HK$3.3bn, respectively, showing 73% and 70% YoY growth, with flat QoQ performance. Net margin is expected to rise to 51.7%, up 1.3pct QoQ, due to improved operating expenses.

Key Forecasts for 4Q25

• New funded accounts: 220k (down 13% QoQ, up 3% YoY)
• Total client assets: HK$1.23tn (stable QoQ)
• Brokerage commission income: HK$2.85bn (down 2% QoQ, up 39% YoY)
• Interest income: HK$3.0bn (down 1% QoQ)
• Total revenue: HK$6.3bn (down 2% QoQ, up 42% YoY)
• Operating expenses: HK$1.6bn (down 7% QoQ)
• GAAP/non-GAAP net profit: HK$3.2/3.3bn (up 73%/70% YoY)
• Net margin: 51.7% (up 1.3pct QoQ)

Key Metrics

• Trading volume: HK$3.9tn (flat QoQ)
• Trading velocity: 14.8x (down from 16.6x in 3Q25)
• Blended commission rate: 7.3bps (down 0.2bps QoQ)
• MFSL balance: HK$72.4bn (up 14.8% QoQ)
• Client idle cash: HK$128.2bn (up 0.5% QoQ)
• CAC: HK$2.42k (up 5.0% QoQ)

What to Watch in Earnings Call

1. New market entry plan for 2026E: Expected to drive mid-term growth in client AUM and new client acquisition.
2. New client acquisition guidance: Management is projected to reach 800k new paying clients in FY25, with 90% of the target achieved by 3Q25.
3. Synergies with Airstar Bank: Continued progress in the 68% stake acquisition and potential benefits for HK stablecoin business.
4. VATP license evaluation phase II: The HK SFC has issued a new VATP license to Victory Fintech, and Futu's progress could influence crypto revenue expansion.

Valuation and Outlook

• Target Price: US$228 (unchanged), implying 19x FY26E P/E.
• Valuation Discount: Current P/E of 12x is a 50% discount to the median of key peers.
• 2026E profit growth: Expected to be in the high-teens range (19% CMBI est).
• Downside Risks:
  • Underperformance in HK/US market turnover
  • Lower-than-expected retail participation
  • Operating expense overruns
  • Ambiguity on growth targets or delays in market expansion

Financial Highlights

Metric	1Q25	2Q25	3Q25	4Q25E	QoQ%	YoY%
Revenue	HK$4.695bn	HK$5.311bn	HK$6.403bn	HK$6.284bn	-1.9%	41.8%
Gross Profit	HK$3,946m	HK$4,640m	HK$5,609m	HK$5,487m	-2.2%	50.1%
Operating Profit	HK$2,685m	HK$3,344m	HK$3,904m	HK$3,897m	-0.2%	75.8%
Net Profit	HK$2,143m	HK$2,574m	HK$3,228m	HK$3,251m	0.7%	73.7%
Non-GAAP Net Income	HK$2,217m	HK$2,660m	HK$3,312m	HK$3,330m	0.5%	70.6%

Shareholding and Performance

• Shareholding:

  • Hua Li: 15.1%
  • BlackRock Inc: 4.7%

• 12-month price performance:

  • Absolute: -5.3%
  • Relative: -2.6%

• Market Share:

  • HK stock market: ~40% (leading)
  • SG stock market: 30% (leading)

Peer Comparison (P/E)

Company	FY25E	FY26E	FY27E	FY28E	Discount vs. Peers Median
Up Fintech Holdings	7.3x	6.5x	5.5x	5.8x	-48.6%
Robinhood Markets Inc.	37.6x	32.5x	27.1x	22.1x	-50.0%
Interactive Brokers	30.5x	26.9x	24.3x	21.1x	-52.6%
Charles Schwab	19.6x	16.3x	14.0x	12.0x	-54.0%
East Money	27.2x	23.9x	21.8x	19.7x	-50.0%
Futu Holdings Ltd.	14.0x	11.9x	10.4x	9.1x	-50.0%

Analyst Ratings

• BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
• HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
• SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide individual investment advice. The information is subject to change without notice, and past performance does not guarantee future results. Investors are advised to consult with a professional financial advisor before making any investment decisions.