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Summary of "Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN: a REmap Analysis"

Core Content

This report, published by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) and the ASEAN Centre for Energy (ACE) in 2016, presents an analysis of renewable energy prospects for the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) up to 2025. It is part of the REmap programme, which aims to identify pathways to increase the share of renewable energy in the region's energy mix.

Main Viewpoints

• Renewable Energy Target: ASEAN has set an ambitious target to achieve a 23% share of renewable energy in total primary energy supply (TPES) by 2025, a significant increase from the 9.4% in 2014.
• Energy Demand Growth: The region is expected to experience a 50% increase in energy demand by 2025, driven by population growth and economic development.
• Energy Security and Environmental Concerns: The region is projected to rely heavily on fossil fuels, especially coal, to meet growing energy needs, raising concerns about energy security and environmental impacts such as air pollution and CO₂ emissions.
• Cost Competitiveness of Renewables: Renewable technologies, particularly solar PV and onshore wind, are becoming increasingly cost-competitive, making them viable for large-scale deployment.
• Regional Collaboration: The report highlights the importance of regional cooperation between IRENA, ACE, and ASEAN Member States (AMS) in accelerating renewable energy adoption and achieving the 23% target.

Key Information

Renewable Energy Overview

• The Reference Case (based on current and planned policies) predicts a renewable energy share of 17% in TPES by 2025.
• The REmap Options (additional potential beyond the Reference Case) are necessary to close the 6 percentage-point gap and reach the 23% target.
• The REmap Options consist of approximately one-third renewable power and two-thirds renewables in end-use sectors (heating, cooking, transport).
• Renewable energy use varies significantly across countries and sectors, with the highest shares in the power sector, followed by buildings, industry, and transport.

Renewable Energy by Sector

Power Sector

• The share of renewable energy in total power generation is expected to rise from 20% in 2014 to 34% in REmap by 2025.
• Renewable power additions are projected to increase by 410 TWh from 2014 to 2025, with 280 TWh from the Reference Case and 130 TWh from REmap Options.
• Installed renewable capacity is expected to grow from 51 GW in 2014 to 184 GW by 2025, representing 43% of total power generation capacity.
• Solar PV and wind power have significant growth potential, with solar PV expected to increase from 2 GW in 2014 to almost 60 GW in REmap.

Transport Sector

• The transport sector is expected to see a 45% increase in energy demand by 2025.
• Renewable energy share in transport is projected to rise from 3% in 2014 to 9% in REmap.
• Biofuels and electric mobility are key technologies for this growth.
• The REmap Options show the potential for 59 million electric two- and three-wheelers and 5.9 million electric four-wheel vehicles by 2025.
• Electrified public transport will also grow significantly, increasing the share of transport energy from electricity from 0.2% to 1.6%.

Buildings Sector

• The share of renewable energy in buildings is expected to increase significantly.
• Solar thermal and modern bioenergy cookstoves are major contributors to renewable energy use in this sector.
• The REmap Options show that renewable energy use in buildings could grow by 25% from 2014 to 2025.

Industry Sector

• The industry sector has substantial potential for renewable energy use.
• Modern bioenergy and electricity are the primary renewable sources for this sector.
• The REmap Options indicate that renewable energy could grow by 35% in this sector by 2025.

Environmental and Economic Benefits

• CO₂ Emissions: In the Reference Case, energy-related CO₂ emissions are expected to rise by 61% by 2025, reaching over 2.2 Gt annually.
• Air Pollution Costs: External costs due to air pollution from fossil fuels are expected to increase from USD 167 billion in 2014 to USD 225 billion in 2025.
• Cost Savings: The REmap Options are expected to reduce these external costs significantly, with the cost of renewable energy in 2025 being at or below the cost of non-renewable sources.
• Economic Growth: Renewable energy deployment can contribute to economic development, energy security, and sustainability, aligning with the goals of the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).

Support and Collaboration

• The ASEAN Renewable Energy Support Programme (ASEAN-RESP), a joint project by ACE and GIZ, has played a crucial role in supporting the REmap analysis.
• The report was developed with input from numerous country experts, focal points, and working groups, as well as ASEAN Energy Ministers.
• It was presented at the Ministers-CEO Dialogue in 2016, where it received positive feedback and support.

Conclusion

The report outlines a comprehensive pathway for ASEAN to increase its renewable energy share to 23% by 2025, emphasizing the need for accelerated deployment across all sectors. It highlights the importance of policy, technology, and regional collaboration in achieving this goal and outlines the environmental and economic benefits of doing so.