2025-05-29-Jefferies-翠丰集团（KGF）_季节性类别支撑增长；维持持有评级_11页_492kb

Equity Research: Kingfisher PLC (KGF LN)

Rating: Hold
Price Target: 274.00p (-4% from prior day's close)
Key Changes:

• Revenue & Profit: KGF reported accelerating LFL (Local Like-for-Like) growth of ~+0.8% in Q1 (FY24: -1.2%), primarily due to favorable weather in March/April. B&Q posted strong LFL of +7.9% (highest in ~4 years) while overall UK top-line growth slowed to +1.1% YoY.
• Financials: Adjusted PBT revised from £510m to £519m for FY26 (within prior guidance range). EBIT margin held steady at ~5.2% in FY26.
• Region-Specific Data:
  • UK: +6% LFL (outpacing company and prior-year performance).
  • France: LFL declined by ~6.2%, pressuring margins; market share lost significantly over ~10 years.
  • Poland: Sustained CAGR growth of ~9% in sales.

Strategic Updates:

• Store Expansion: 8 Homebase conversions; 6 stores operational by end-May.
• Sustainability: Core ESG focus on GHG emissions; targets include net-zero operations by 2040 and 100% responsibly sourced wood/paper.

Analyst Viewpoints:

• Hold Rating Reasoning: Cautious on H2 due to uncertainties in France and UK; forecasts UK growth normalized at ~+2% LFL. KGF retains stance due to macro risks (e.g., consumer spending, inflation) and France's "toxic" operating environment.
• Upside Risks: Trade penetration gains, DIY spend pick-up, successful Screwfix rollout in France.
• Downside Risks: Broader consumer discretionary squeeze, ongoing UK/Poland macro pressures, and execution risks in new initiatives.

Valuation & Scenarios:

• Base Case PT: 274p (12× FY26 P/E, EV/EBIT 9x).
• Up/Downside Scenarios:
  • +11% (316p): Faster trade growth & multiple expansion.
  • -23% (219p): Slower top-line & lower P/E.

Disclosure Notes:

• Analysts included: Grace Gilberg & Andrew Wade.
• Reports are Jefferies clients-only; carries out investment banking activities with the company. Refer to pages 6–11 for full disclosures.