2010年-世界发展银行全球_Armenia_After_the_Crisis___Challenges_and_Opportunities_-_Policy_Forum___Concept_Note_14页_383kb

Summary of the Policy Forum: Armenia After the Crisis – Challenges and Opportunities

Context

Armenia has a small economy that experienced rapid growth before the global financial crisis, averaging 12% annual growth from 2000 to 2007. This growth was driven largely by remittances and foreign direct investment (FDI), but was not sustainable as it relied on non-tradable sectors like construction. Exports, concentrated in copper, molybdenum, tourism, and other sectors, stagnated from 2005, leading to a decline in export per capita despite rising income per capita.

The global crisis severely impacted Armenia, with output falling by over 14% in 2009. The government implemented a strong stimulus package, initially cutting spending due to a drop in revenue, but later focusing on credit and guarantee facilities for private enterprises, and prioritizing social sectors and infrastructure in the state budget. This led to stabilization but also increased public external debt from 13.5% of GDP in 2008 to an estimated 43% in 2010.

Armenia faces significant challenges in its development, including the closure of two of its four borders, which raises transport costs and reduces market contestability. However, it has a strong skill base, particularly in IT, and potential in industries such as tourism, mining, alcoholic products, and agro-businesses. The post-crisis policy package includes macroeconomic flexibility and fiscal stabilization, alongside micro-level initiatives to promote innovation, export orientation, and FDI, especially through the Armenian diaspora. Efforts are also underway to modernize the legal and institutional framework for mining and to initiate formal negotiations with the EU for a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA). Additionally, the government is working on improving tax and customs administration, introducing a private pension pillar, and enhancing the effectiveness of the public sector.

Strategic Objectives of the Brainstorming Session

The Policy Forum aimed to:

• Share international experiences to guide Armenia towards a more sustainable and export-oriented growth path.
• Address political economy challenges, such as state capture and inefficiencies in public sector performance, which hinder modernization and growth.

Policy & Implementation Areas

The forum was structured around four key areas:

1. Building social coalition for change
2. Managing future macroeconomic volatility and risks
3. Fostering innovation, export-orientation and investments
4. Improving the effectiveness of the state

Each session included introductory presentations followed by open discussions. The sessions were co-chaired by an Armenian and an international representative to ensure relevant international lessons were shared.

Key Issues and Trade-offs

• How can a small open economy stimulate growth in a weak global demand environment with closed borders?
• Is there a trade-off between short-term growth policies and long-term development goals?
• What role can the Armenian diaspora play in promoting R&D and knowledge transfer?
• How can best practices in export promotion and product upgrading be applied to Armenia?
• How can trade and transport constraints be addressed?
• What is the role of FDI in sustainable growth of export-oriented sectors?
• How to promote agro-industrial development and access new markets?

Participants

Armenian Officials

1. Tigran Sargsyan – Prime Minister of Armenia (Chairman)
2. Vahram Nercissiantz – Chief Economic Advisor to the President (Vice Chairman)
3. Nerves Yeritsyan – Minister of Economy
4. Tigran Davtyan – Minister of Finance
5. Arthur Javadyan – Chairman of the Central Bank
6. David Sargsyan – Chief of Staff of Government
7. Karine Minasyan – Deputy Minister of Economy
8. Vardan Aramyan – Deputy Minister of Finance
9. Vache Gabrielyan – Deputy Chairman of Central Bank

International Practitioners and Academics

10. Ricardo Lagos – Former President of Chile
11. Ricardo Hausmann – Director of Harvard's Center for International Development
12. Leszek Balcerowicz – Former Deputy Prime Minister of Poland
13. Dani Rodrik – Professor at the Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University

World Bank Representatives

14. Philippe Le Houerou – Vice President for Europe and Central Asia Region
15. Asad Alam – Regional Director, South Caucasus Country Department
16. Jean-Michel Happi – Country Manager for Armenia
17. Pedro Rodriguez – Lead Economist, Europe and Central Asia Region
18. Naira Melkumyan – Senior Operations Officer, Acting Country Manager for Armenia

Key Speakers and Their Contributions

• Ricardo Lagos – Shared insights on building domestic coalitions for sustainable growth, drawing from Chile's economic miracle and its reforms in education, infrastructure, and trade.
• Leszek Balcerowicz – Discussed institutional reforms in Poland, particularly the implementation of "shock therapy" and its impact on governance and economic performance.
• Ricardo Hausmann – Presented international experience on promoting growth policies, emphasizing competitiveness, export-led development, and the role of the diaspora.
• Dani Rodrik – Focused on the political economy of economic policy, exploring how some governments are more effective in implementing reforms and how to overcome state capture and inefficiencies.

Conclusion and Next Steps

The Policy Forum aimed to synthesize international experiences and local challenges to guide Armenia's post-crisis recovery. It concluded with a summary of key messages from Armenian officials, international practitioners, and the World Bank. Open discussion was encouraged to explore actionable steps for reform and implementation. The event concluded with closing remarks by the Prime Minister and the World Bank's Vice President, highlighting the importance of continued collaboration and strategic reforms for Armenia's future growth and development.