2025-06-11-Jefferies-麦克斯医疗保健机构（MAXHEALT）_Max_Healthcare_来自Jeff美国会议的要点——新旅程的开始_14页_816kb

Max Healthcare Institute Analysis Summary

Overview

• Equity Research Report: Max Healthcare Institute from Jefferies (June 11, 2025)
• Recommendation: Maintain BUY rating
• Current Price: INR 1,182.65
• Price Target: INR 1,400 (+18% upside)

Company Update

• Max Healthcare embarked on a "house-setting" journey from FY21 to FY24 focused on:
  • Improving hospital network occupancy (reached 75% in FY24)
  • Correcting inferior payor mix
  • Strengthening case mix
• Achieved significant margin improvement: EBITDA margins rose to 27.5% (up from 17.5% in FY21), and ROCE reached 27% (up from 10% in FY21).

Growth Strategy

• Aggressive Capacity Expansion: Plan to increase bed capacity from ~5,100 to ~9,000 beds by 2027 (+75% increase).
  • Majority through brownfield expansions (faster breakeven).
  • Two greenfield projects in Gurugram and Pitampura (Delhi).
• Acquisition Strategy: Continued focus on acquiring established hospital networks in cities with proven business models.

Key Growth Drivers

• New Acquisitions: Significant growth expected from recently acquired units in Lucknow, Noida, and Nagpur, improving sales and margins.
• Brownfield Expansion: New beds expected to break even quickly, contributing to revenue and margin expansion.
• Case Mix: Migration from lower-margin segments (e.g., institutional) to higher-value, fee-driven specialties (Oncology leads revenue).

Financial Projections (FY25E)

• Revenue (2024): INR 86,210 million.
• EBITDA (2024): INR 22,740 million.
• EPS (2024): INR 13.8 (projected).
• Revenue Growth: +21% in 2025E.
• EBITDA Growth: +24% in 2025E.
• EV/EBITDA: 40x (FY27E estimate).

Acquisition Strategy

• Targeting ~20 cities with proven competitors.
• Willingness to deploy net debt-to-EBITDA ratio up to 2x for acquisitions.

Risks & Uncertainties

• Slower-than-expected ARPOB growth due to new bed additions.
• Longer time to breakeven for new hospital beds.
• ESG concerns (Affordability / Access issues).

Valuation & Price Target

• 12M Price Target: INR 1,400.
• Upside Scenario: INR 1,610 (+36%).
• Downside Scenario: INR 1,000 (-15%).

Key Metrics (FY24-FY28E):

Metric	2024	2025E	2026E	2027E	2028E
Revenue (Bn INR)	86.2	100.7	100.7	120.0	138.9
EBITDA (Bn INR)	22.7	27.7	27.7	34.2	39.8
EPS (INR)	13.8	16.8	16.8	22.3	26.5
P/E	83.9	68.6	51.8	43.6
P/B	10.6	9.4	8.1	6.9

Conclusion

Jefferies maintains a BUY rating, citing strong execution, accelerated growth from capacity expansion, and improving profitability metrics. The key drivers are brownfield expansion and acquisitions, expected to achieve 20%+ EBITDA growth by FY27E.