2025-05-28-Jefferies-英国杂货业第一季度表现强劲的局面已经形成_12页_892kb

Summary of UK Food Retailers Equity Research Report

Key Insights

The report, published on May 28, 2025, analyzes the performance and prospects of UK food retailers, highlighting resilience amid rising inflation and evolving market dynamics. Key findings include:

• Growth Trends: Food inflation remains elevated, reaching 4.1% YoY, but inflation-adjusted volume/mix growth showed improvement in the trailing period (from +2.7% to +0.3%). The Big 4 retailers saw a deceleration in overall growth to +3.2%, while discounters maintained steady performance at +9.2%.

• Major Retailers:

  • Tesco (TSCO): Food sales grew +4.9% during the period, driven by strong market share gains, with an upgrade from HOLD to BUY. Despite inflationary pressures, the company maintains a healthy free cash flow yield (6.4%).
  • Sainsbury’s (SBRY): Growth slowed to +5.2% YoY, with an emphasis on non-food sales and favorable weather supporting Argos mix-accretive categories.
  • Marks & Spencer (MKS): Demonstrated strong resilience in its food segment (+20.9% YoY in the previous period), leading to a recommended price target of 440p (BUY rating), reflecting its progressive expansion and TAM growth.

• Consumer Behavior: Ongoing challenges from cyberattacks and inflation persist, but major players like Tesco, Sainsbury’s, and Marks & Spencer exhibit strategies to maintain market share and operational efficiency.

• Valuation & Risks:

  • Risks for Tesco, Sainsbury’s, and J. Sainsbury: Deteriorating input costs, consumer slowdown, and increased price investments at competitors are named as key concerns.
  • Marks & Spencer Upside: Potential to exceed the traditional grocery retailer valuation range (7–9% FCY) if its food expansion and execution in TAM leverage materialize.
  • Downside Risks: Major inflation in input costs and macroeconomic factors impacting consumer spending remain critical concerns across all retailers.

Conclusion

The UK food retail sector shows signs of adaptation to inflationary pressures despite challenges from economic uncertainty. Tesco, Sainsbury’s, and Marks & Spencer are positioned with varying catalysts, including operational resilience, market share gains, and strategic expansions. However, intense scrutiny of cost inputs and consumer demand remains necessary for sustained performance.