20241103-创元期货-铜周度报告_基本面偏弱叠加宏观不确定性增加_铜价走势纠结_21页_4mb

报告摘要

铜周度报告总结 (2024年11月3日)

摘要
近期铜市场呈现供需博弈局面：矿端生产改善，冶炼端检修影响产量下滑，需求端表现平淡，库存去化缓慢，叠加宏观不确定性，铜价维持震荡走势。

一、供应端

矿端：
智利铜矿产量持续恢复，三季度同比增长42%；进口铜精矿加工费环比上升0.23美元/吨至1109美元/吨，港口库存降至902万吨。企业对四季度预期乐观。
冶炼端（11月）：
11月国内冶炼厂检修高峰来袭，影响产能13万吨，为年内最高。检修拖累原料需求，南方粗铜加工费反弹至1100元/吨，预计11月电解铜产量继续下降。

二、需求端

下游需求（精废价差、铜杆）：
精废价差收窄至合理线下方，再生铜杆企业亏损，开工率从15.51%降至10.02%；精铜杆开工率下滑至74.12%。10月政策性促消费（空调、汽车）或支撑需求局部改善，渗透率稳定提升（10月新能源车零售增长49%）。

三、库存动态

LME/COMEX： LME库存环比降5.4万吨至2713万吨，亚洲库存显著去化；COMEX库存小幅回升（8万吨）。
全球显性库存合计6198万吨，较前期高34万吨，去化缓慢。

四、价格与行情回顾

沪铜/ LME周度： 沪铜下跌1.7%至76520元/吨，LME下跌2.6%。市场升水回落，LME0-3倒挂扩大至-125美元/吨。
宏观扰动： 美国9月ADP就业超预期、非农数据不及预期，叠加大选临近，宏观预期强化波动；国内PMI重回扩张区间。

五、供需展望

供应端铜精矿加工费支撑矿价；需求端11月终端采购季节性回暖有限，库存去化缓慢。预计四季度铜价震荡，政策刺激下需求修复或改善，库存压力仍存。

English Translation (Summary)

Copper Weekly Report Summary (November 3, 2024)

Core View
The copper market presents a standoff between supply-demand dynamics: mining side shows improvement, smelting output is pressured by maintenance, demand remains lukewarm, inventories fail to clear, and macro uncertainties persist, with copper prices likely in a fluctuating range.

Key Highlights by Segment

1. Supply Side

Mining: Chilean copper production recovers steadily (Sep. output up 42% YoY), while the benchmark import copper concentrate price rises to $1,109/ton.
Smelting (November): Maintenance-driven output cuts of 130,000 tons in November will drag supply, with copper concentrate demand weakening and refining margins under pressure.

2. Demand Side

Sluggish Demand: Tightening copper-for-copper price spreads (below equilibrium) force再生铜 rod mills to cut production.
Preliminary Signs: Q4 policy-driven promotions (air conditioners, autos) may boost demand; NEV渗透率 (penetration) remains stable.

3. Inventory Update

LME/Comex: Inventory drawdown in LME Asia offsets overall gains (2713kt net). COMEX inventories edge higher.
Global Stockpile: 6,198kt global liquidity persists (up 340k YoY).

4. Market Movement

Prices: SHFE copper fell 1.7%, LME copper 2.6%.
Macroeconomic Shifts: U.S. NFP surprise + market uncertainty ahead of elections + domestic PMI rebound.

5. Outlook

Supply: Concentrate tightness supports prices, but smelting cuts weigh output.
Demand: Q4 end-buying may lift spot demand, but inventories remain high. U.S. election-related macro uncertainty limits upside.

展开完整摘要