2025-06-16-Bernstein-2024年下半年全球金属与矿业业务状况_潮流转变-基本金属与大宗商品之间的差异_74页_7mb

Global Metals & Mining - Summary

• Report Overview:
  A review of the global metals and mining sector's performance based on 74 companies. These companies represent $1.7 trillion in enterprise value, covering diverse sub-sectors. The analysis uses data through December 2024 to assess operational and financial metrics for a unified business model.

• Key Findings:

  • Commodity Prices: Base metals like copper, aluminum, and zinc saw price increases amid strong demand, while bulk commodities like iron ore and steel prices normalized. Gold surged due to central bank diversification efforts, but lithium prices declined sharply due to oversupply.
  • Performance Metrics: Cost inflation in 2024 was lower than in previous years due to resolved supply chain issues. The sector's EBITDA growth remained flat, with both revenue and operating expenses growing moderately.
  • Earnings Power: Miners have shifted focus to returning value to shareholders through dividends and buybacks, maintaining low leverage to strengthen balance sheets.

• Sector Insights:

  • Revenue was dominated by copper, gold, and aluminum, driven by price increases.
  • For EBITDA margins, copper, gold, and iron ore performed best.
  • Dividend yield was highest for iron ore and diversified companies.
  • Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) remains healthy but has normalized from peak levels.

• Investment Outlook:

  • Overall cost inflation is expected to stay controlled, and capital discipline will persist.
  • Base metals are near long-term margins, so the outlook is not alarming.
  • Lithium faces risks from ongoing supply issues, delaying any recommendations.
  • Analyst recommendations include Outperform ratings for Antofagasta, Barrick Mining, Glencore, and Rio Tinto, with Market-Perform for others.

Key Recommendations

• Focus on diversified companies and iron ore for stable dividend yields.
• Monitor base metals for potential upside but remain cautious on lithium.