2010年-世界发展银行全球_Assessment_of_the_Impact_of_the_Crisis_on_New_PPI_Projects___Update_Six_14页_861kb

PPI Data Update Note 36 Summary: May 2010

Core Content Overview

This document provides an update on the impact of the global financial crisis on new private infrastructure projects (PPI projects) in developing countries, focusing on investment trends, sector performance, regional differences, and the role of financial institutions in financing these projects.

Main Points

1. Overall Recovery in PPI Investment

• Investment commitments to new PPI projects in developing countries increased by 15% in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to the same period in 2008.
• In 2009 as a whole, investment grew by 15% from 2008 levels.
• This marks a strong recovery from the 45% drop in investment commitments in the second half of 2008 compared to 2007.

2. Selective Recovery

• The recovery was concentrated in large energy projects in a few countries: Brazil, China, India, and Turkey, which accounted for 65% of the investment and almost all the growth in the fourth quarter.
• Russia saw a sharp decline due to the financial crisis and the end of the RAO UES privatization program.
• Excluding the top five countries, investment in developing countries would have fallen by 58% in the fourth quarter of 2009 and 32% in 2009 as a whole.

3. Sectoral Performance

• Energy was the only sector with overall investment growth in 2009, up 40% compared to 2008, driven by greenfield power plants.
• Transport saw some growth in the fourth quarter but a 12% decline in annual investment.
• Telecoms and water experienced significant drops: telecoms down 22%, water down 30%.

4. Project Delays and Cancellations

• A significant portion of projects were affected by the crisis, with 17% of reviewed projects by investment delayed, canceled, or at risk of delay by the end of the fourth quarter of 2009.
• Transport was the most affected sector, with 32% of projects affected by the crisis.
• Delays and cancellations were also influenced by implementation issues such as land acquisition and government approvals.

5. Financing Trends

• Commercial bank lending remained constrained, with investors and financiers showing a preference for "flight to quality."
• Debt/equity ratios were lower, cost of debt higher, and loan tenors shorter in 2009.
• Local public banks, multilateral, and bilateral agencies remained key financiers, especially in countries with limited access to foreign capital.
• Syndicated loans in emerging markets fell by 35% in 2009 compared to 2008, and 49% compared to 2007.

6. Regional Variations

• Latin America and South Asia saw the highest growth in PPI investment in the fourth quarter of 2009, with 83% and 95% increases, respectively.
• South Asia had the most significant overall growth in 2009, with 82% increase in investment.
• Europe and Central Asia experienced the largest decline, with a 40% drop in annual investment.
• Sub-Saharan Africa and the Middle East and North Africa saw 46% and 7% declines, respectively.

7. Country Income Group Analysis

• Middle-income countries had the strongest recovery, with 16% growth in the fourth quarter and 46% overall growth in 2009.
• Low-income countries saw a 31% decline in annual investment, despite a 16% increase in the number of projects.

8. Project Types and Trends

• Greenfield projects declined in investment, while concessions and divestitures began to show signs of growth.
• Large projects (US$1 billion or more) accounted for most of the investment in 2009.
• Small projects (less than US$500 million) also saw growth, but the overall trend was slower than pre-crisis levels.

9. Government Commitment and Future Outlook

• Despite the crisis, developing country governments remained committed to PPP programs.
• A backlog of projects is expected to increase competition for financing in the coming months.
• The impact of the crisis is expected to persist for some time, with greater selectivity in project financing.