20151106-Maybank_KERPL-Regional_Oil___Gas_11页_793kb

报告摘要

Regional Oil & Gas Summary

Core Content

The document provides an overview of the regional oil and gas market as of late November 2015, highlighting price movements, market trends, and analyst ratings across various countries and companies. It includes news headlines, latest reports, and valuation data for key players in the sector.

Key Price Movements

Brent Crude Oil: Fell by 1.2% to USD47.98/b
WTI Crude Oil: Fell by 2.4% to USD45.20/b
NYMEX December Natural Gas: Rose by 10.2 cents to USD2.36/MMBtu

News Headlines

"Peak demand" means world may never see oil at $100 a barrel again (Reuters, 5 November 2015)
- Industry executives suggest that global demand for oil is approaching its peak, not supply, which may prevent oil prices from reaching $100 per barrel again.
- Oil prices have dropped significantly since 2014 due to increased global supply, including U.S. shale oil and offshore reserves in Brazil, Africa, and Asia.
Shell splits business units (Upstream, 5 November 2015)
- Shell is restructuring into three new business units to better integrate with BG Group and achieve cost savings.
- The integrated gas unit will become a standalone entity, led by Maarten Wetselaar.
China teapot refineries: Bitumen blend demand continues to ease (Platts, 5 November 2015)
- Demand for imported crude, bitumen blend, and fuel oil by independent teapot refineries in Shandong is weak due to lower refining margins.
- Despite this, Dongming Petrochemical continues to import crude oil at a rate of 270,000-mt.
NYMEX December natural gas rises 10.2 cents on storage report (Platts, 5 November 2015)
- The US Energy Information Administration reported a smaller-than-expected storage injection, suggesting a potential tightening in supply/demand balance or issues with storage capacity.
- Tim Evans from Citi Futures noted the injection may indicate a shift in market dynamics.

Latest Reports

China Oil & Gas

Rating: OVERWEIGHT
Key Points:
- NDRC cut retail gasoline and diesel prices by CNY125/MT.
- Inventory losses from 3Q15 are expected to revert in 4Q15, helping Sinopec meet full-year estimates.
- Reiterate Overweight rating on the China Oil & Gas sector.

Sinopec

Rating: BUY
Key Points:
- Reported a 47.8% fall in net profit for the first 9 months of 2015.
- Strong cash flow and debt restructuring to take advantage of low bond coupon rates.
- Dividend payment is expected to be no less than 30% of net profit.

NewOcean Energy

Rating: BUY
Key Points:
- Terminated JV with Sinopec, no financial impact.
- Accelerates auto LNG development with JVs with 5 other parties.
- 6 permanent LNG stations expected by end of 2016.

Petronas Gas

Rating: HOLD
Key Points:
- 9M15 headline net profit included a substantial forex loss.
- Core profit slightly ahead due to lower taxes.
- Stable earnings profile; maintain HOLD rating with unchanged target price.

Valuation Table (Asia Oil & Gas)

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 3-Nov	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDb)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE % 2015E	P/BV 2015E	Yield % 2015E
PetroChina - H	857 HK	Sell	6.19	4.80	246.0	81.4	27.2	47.3	6.8	7.5	2.8	0.8	1.6
Sinopec - H	386 HK	Buy	5.67	6.00	97.3	67.4	13.7	14.9	5.9	6.1	6.5	0.9	3.6
CNOOC LTD	883 HK	Buy	9.20	11.34	53.0	92.9	17.1	20.5	4.2	4.5	5.1	0.9	4.3
New Ocean Energy	342 HK	Buy	3.22	7.70	0.6	0.9	4.5	3.7	4.3	3.0	19.0	0.8	2.2

Analyst Contacts

Howard Wong (HK/CHINA): (852) 22680648 | howardwong@kimeng.com.hk
Jigar Shah (INDIA): (91) 22 6623 2632 | jigar@maybank-ke.co.in
Pandu Anugrah (INDONESIA): (62) 21 2557 1137 | pandu.anugrah@maybank-ke.co.id
Liaw Thong Jung (MALAYSIA): (603) 22978688 | tliaw@maybank-ib.com
Michael Bengson (PHILIPPINES): (63) 28498840 | micheal bengson@maybank-atrke.com
Yeah Chee Keong (SINGAPORE): (65) 6231 5842 | yeakcheeong@maybank-ke.com.sg
Sutthichai Kumworachai (THAILAND): (66) 2658 6300 x 1400 | sutthichai.k@maybank-ke.co.th
Le Nguyen Nhat Chuyen (VIETNAM): (84) 844555888 x 8082 | chuyen.le@maybank-kimeng.com.vn
Truong Quang Binh (VIETNAM): (84) 444555888 x 8087 | binh.truong@maybank-kimeng.com.vn

Asia Oil-Service Valuations

Company	Ticker	Maybank KE Rating	Price 3-Nov	Target Price	Mkt Cap (USDb)	90D T/O (USDm)	PER 2015E	PER 2016E	EV/EBITDA 2015E	EV/EBITDA 2016E	ROE % 2015E	P/BV 2015E	Yield % 2015E
COSL	2883 HK	NR	8.73	NR	10.3	12.1	15.9	12.1	13.2	11.4	4.8	0.7	2.5
Anton Oil	3337 HK	NR	1.04	NR	0.3	0.6	N/A	42.6	11.8	8.1	-3.4	0.9	0.0
SPT Energy	1251 HK	NR	0.79	NR	0.2	0.4	N/A	215.5	-8.1	9.9	-14.3	0.6	0.0
Hilong	1623 HK	NR	1.64	NR	0.4	0.4	7.6	6.6	6.5	5.9	-2.0	0.4	0.0
Honghua	196 HK	NR	0.61	NR	0.3	0.3	N/A	166.4	12.8	9.9	-4.9	0.4	0.0
Petro King	2178 HK	NR	0.76	NR	0.1	0.0	N/A	190.0	9.7	7.5	-1.4	0.4	0.0
Jutal Offshore	3303 HK	NR	0.76	NR	0.1	0.1	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Shengli Pipe	1080 HK	NR	0.25	NR	0.1	0.1	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A	N/A
Chu Kong Pipe	1938 HK	NR	1.33	NR	0.2	0.2	N/A	8.4	45.5	18.5	-4.9	0.4	0.0

Notes

The document highlights the impact of global supply increases on oil prices.
Analysts suggest that the market may be entering a phase of lower demand and more stable earnings.
The valuation data is weighted by market capitalization.
Some companies are not rated by Maybank KE and their data is sourced from Bloomberg.

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