20161116-USDA-USDA_Livestock,_Dairy,_and_Poultry_Outlook_2016.11.16_15页_667kb

Summary of Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook (ERS, Nov. 16, 2016)

Core Content Overview

This report provides an analysis of the U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets for the period of 2016 and 2017, including production forecasts, price trends, and international trade data. The report is authored by USDA Economic Research Service (ERS) coordinators and experts in the field.

Main Points

Cattle/Beef

• Cattle Prices: Cattle prices declined in October compared to September and 2015 levels. Fed cattle prices averaged $100 per cwt in October, down from $131 in 2015.
• Market Outlook: Prices are expected to remain under pressure due to higher 2017 beef production forecasts and increased cold storage of beef.
• Import/Export Trends:
  • Beef imports for the third quarter of 2016 were 751 million pounds, a 16% decrease from the same period in 2015.
  • Fourth-quarter 2016 imports were revised down to 635 million pounds.
  • Beef exports increased by 22% in the third quarter of 2016, but were slightly revised downward due to weaker-than-expected September export data.
  • Live animal imports from NAFTA countries are expected to account for about 5% of the U.S. slaughter numbers.

Dairy

• Production Trends:
  • Milk cow numbers were revised downward for July and August, and September numbers were slightly below August.
  • Milk production in September 2016 was 17.0 billion pounds, a 2.1% increase from September 2015.
  • 2016 milk production forecast was reduced by 0.2 billion pounds to 212.5 billion pounds.
  • 2017 milk production forecast was reduced by 25,000 head to 9.370 million head.
• Price Trends:
  • Cheese prices are forecast to rise for the rest of 2016 and 2017.
  • All-milk prices for 2016 are forecast to be $16.00-$16.10 per cwt, and for 2017, $16.30-$17.20 per cwt.
• International Trade:
  • Dairy products are primarily imported from the European Union and New Zealand.
  • Exports on a milk-fat milk-equivalent basis for 2016 and 2017 are expected to be slightly lower than last month.

Pork/Hogs

• Production Trends:
  • Pork production is expected to be record-high in the fourth quarter of 2016 due to increased slaughter numbers, especially in November and December.
  • Fourth-quarter production forecast was raised by 30 million pounds to just under 6.7 billion pounds.
• Price Trends:
  • Fourth-quarter live equivalent prices for hogs are expected to average $34-$36 per cwt, down 22% from a year ago.
  • Retail pork prices averaged $3.79 in September, down 5% from 2015.
• Export Trends:
  • U.S. pork exports in September were 3% higher than in 2015.
  • Third-quarter 2016 exports were 5.3% higher than the same period in 2015.
  • Exports to China increased by 42.4% in the third quarter, while exports to other markets showed mixed results.

Poultry

• Production Trends:
  • Fourth-quarter broiler exports were forecast to increase by 40 million pounds, and 2017 exports by 30 million pounds.
  • The 2017 broiler production forecast was reduced by 100 million pounds due to lower price expectations.
• Price Trends:
  • Broiler prices for the fourth quarter were forecast to be 72-74 cents per pound, down from year-earlier levels.
  • Turkey production for the fourth quarter was reduced by 30 million pounds.
  • Frozen hen prices were lowered slightly to 118-122 cents per pound.
• Export Trends:
  • Poultry exports in September were strong, with notable growth in exports to Jamaica and Cuba.
  • Exports to Mexico and Asia are expected to be competitive in the remainder of 2016.

Key Information

• Imports as a Percentage of Domestic Use:
  • Beef imports are about 5% of domestic use.
  • Pork imports are minimal and not significant compared to domestic use.
  • Lamb imports are over 55% of domestic use.
  • Dairy imports are primarily from the European Union and New Zealand.
• Export Markets:
  • Mexico and China are the top markets for U.S. pork.
  • The U.S. has a competitive edge in pork exports due to lower prices and favorable trade conditions.
• Price Spreads:
  • Packer spreads remain wide, even as wholesale values decline.
  • Retail prices tend to respond more slowly to changes in cattle and wholesale prices.
• Data Sources:
  • The report references data from USDA's National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS), and Economic Research Service (ERS).

Forecast Highlights

Contact and Resources

• Contact Information:

  • Mildred Haley: mhaley@ers.usda.gov
  • Keithly Jones: kjones@ers.usda.gov
  • William Hahn: whahn@ers.usda.gov
  • Jerry Cessna: jgcessna@ers.usda.gov
  • Jonathan Law: jonathan.law@ers.usda.gov
  • Sean Ramos: sean.ramos@ers.usda.gov
  • Carolyn Ligggon: cvliggon@ers.usda.gov

• Subscription and Data Products:

  • ERS offers email notifications and RSS feeds for its publications.
  • Data products include:
    • Meat Price Spreads
    • Livestock and Meat Trade Data
    • Livestock & Meat Domestic Data
    • Dairy Data

• Related Websites:

  • Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook: http://www.ers.usda.gov/publications/?page=1&topicId=0&authorId=0&seriesCode=LDPM&s
  • Animal Production and Marketing Issues: http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/animal-production-marketing-issues.aspx
  • Cattle: http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/cattle-beef.aspx
  • Dairy: http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/dairy.aspx
  • Hogs: http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/hogs-pork.aspx
  • Poultry and Eggs: http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/animal-products/poultry-eggs.aspx
  • WASDE: http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewDocumentInfo.do?documentID=1194

Outlook and Trends

• Market Pressures:
  • Cattle and beef prices are expected to remain under pressure due to higher production and cold storage levels.
  • Lower cattle prices are beginning to affect retail prices.
• Dairy Market:
  • Cheese and all-milk prices are forecast to increase in 2016 and 2017.
  • Milk production is expected to decline slightly in 2017 due to lower herd numbers.
• Poultry and Pork:
  • Poultry and pork markets show signs of recovery, with increased exports and production.
  • Broiler and turkey production forecasts are adjusted downward for 2017 due to price expectations.

Conclusion

The U.S. livestock, dairy, and poultry markets in 2016 and 2017 show mixed trends, with some sectors experiencing price declines and others showing growth in production and exports. The report highlights the importance of monitoring international trade dynamics, feed prices, and domestic production levels to understand future market conditions.