兰德-乌克兰战争的升级-经验教训和未来风险（英）-2023.9-108页_465kb

Summary of Escalation in the War in Ukraine

Key Findings:

1. Russian Escalation Restraints:

   • Acute concerns about NATO military response.
   • Risk of losing international support (e.g., China, developing world).
   • Perception that Ukraine can be defeated through attrition.

2. Potential Russian Escalation Options:

   • Limited NATO attack, out-of-area crisis provocation, expanded air campaign, chemical weapons use, or nuclear tests/use.
   • Risks higher if battlefield losses threaten regime stability.

3. Ukrainian Escalation:

   • Limited strikes inside Russia; concerns about escalation spirals if intensified.

Policy Implications for U.S./NATO:

1. Maintain Alliance cohesion and consensus on escalation management.
2. Target military support with lower escalation risks (e.g., limited-range systems).
3. Balance battlefield gains with minimal escalation risks, especially as counteroffensives evolve.
4. Plan for both prevention and response to further Russian escalation, including nuclear use.
5. Preserve communication channels to mitigate inadvertent escalation risks.

Lessons for Future Conflicts:

• Geographic and alliance dynamics in Ukraine may not apply to other conflicts.
• Uncertainty in escalation decisions requires flexible and robust crisis management.