2021-09-08-牛津经济研究院-US_Travel_and_Tourism_Employment_Report_20页_795kb

Summary of US Travel and Tourism Employment Report

Overview

The report analyzes the leisure and hospitality (L&H) industry's employment situation post-pandemic, highlighting significant job losses, slow recovery, and challenges such as labor shortages and wage pressures. Key comparisons are drawn with other industries and travel employment.

Current Employment Status

• As of August 2021, L&H employment is 10% below its pre-pandemic level, with a total of 1.699 million jobs lost between February 2020 and August 2021.
• This represents 32% of all US job losses during the same period, despite L&H accounting for only 11% of pre-pandemic employment.

Employment Trends

• The recovery slowed notably in August 2021, with no job gains reported, while the industry averaged 350,000 job additions per month from January to July 2021.
• Unemployment in L&H reached 9.1% in August 2021, diverging from the national rate and reflecting pandemic-related disruptions.

Disproportionate Job Losses

• L&H suffered more than twice the job loss rate of other major industries, with specific sub-sectors like arts, entertainment, and recreation experiencing losses exceeding 15%.
• This compares favorably to winter 2020-2021 peaks but indicates ongoing vulnerability to economic fluctuations.

Labor Market Constraints

• Labor shortages are a major constraint, with small businesses reporting that 50% were unable to fill job openings in recent reports.
• Upward wage pressures are growing due to high demand and labor scarcity, with L&H average hourly earnings up 13.2% year-over-year in August 2021.

Recovery Challenges

• The Delta variant slowed recovery in August, as businesses became cautious amid rising cases, potentially causing a pause rather than a derailment.
• Small businesses face expanded employment shortfalls due to mismatches between returning economic activity and workforce availability.

Comparison with Travel Employment

• Travel employment declined more sharply in 2020 (down 34%) compared to L&H's 19% loss, erasing decade-long gains.
• L&H employment encompasses both travel-related and local demand, leading to less severe declines than direct travel jobs, though travel underperformance is evident.

Key Findings

• The pandemic has resulted in a cumulative loss of significant employment opportunities in L&H, with recovery dependent on health improvements and economic policies.
• Historical data shows strong L&H growth before 2020, but the year's collapse exceeded prior declines, highlighting long-term risks.