20180709-法国巴黎银行-EM_TODAY_10页_309kb

EM STRATEGY DAILY SUMMARY - 09 July 2018

🌍 Core Content Overview

This document provides a strategic summary of key economic and policy developments in emerging markets for the week of 09 July 2018, focusing on central bank decisions, fiscal policy implications, and market outlooks. It is produced by BNP Paribas Global Markets Research teams and is intended for professional clients and relevant market participants.

📌 Key Events and Outlooks

Asia

• Malaysia & South Korea: Central banks are expected to keep interest rates on hold this week. South Korea's recent weak data on inflation and export growth may lead to a decision not to hike rates at all in 2018.
• China:
  • June PPI and CPI inflation rates are set to be released on Tuesday (10 July), with forecasts of 4.7% y/y for PPI and 2.0% y/y for CPI, higher than consensus estimates.
  • The central bank is monitoring aggregate financing growth, which slumped in May. It has adopted a more dovish stance with reserve ratio cuts.
  • June trade data will be released on Friday (13 July).
• India:
  • June CPI and May industrial production numbers will be released on Thursday (12 July).
  • June trade balance will also be released during the week.

CEEMEA

• Turkey:
  • Cabinet ministers will be appointed today, with economy management roles potentially affecting fiscal policy.
  • Treasury auctions are scheduled for Monday and Tuesday (10 and 11 July).
  • Local bonds are underweighted due to expected supply pressure.
• Poland:
  • The National Bank of Poland will announce its rate decision on Wednesday (11 July).
  • Inflation remains low, with CPI surprising to the downside in H1 2018.
  • The central bank is expected to remain dovish, with rate hikes possibly delayed until H2 2019.
• Hungary & Czech Republic:
  • June CPI data will be released on Tuesday (10 July) for Hungary and Wednesday (11 July) for the Czech Republic.
  • The Czech National Bank (CNB) is expected to maintain a neutral stance, with inflation likely to rise in H2 2018, supporting a potential rate hike in Q4.

Latin America (Latam)

• Brazil:
  • May retail sales data will be released on Thursday (12 July), with a forecasted rise from 0.6% y/y to 2.3% y/y.
  • The central bank is likely waiting to assess the impact of the truckers' strike on inflation.
  • The BCB emphasizes its focus on second-round effects of FX movements rather than FX dynamics.
  • Local macro funds have cleared positions, potentially leading to a rally.
• Chile:
  • June CPI inflation rate will be released on Monday (9 July), with a forecasted increase from 2.0% y/y in May to 2.7% y/y.

📞 Contacts

📚 Legal and Disclaimer Notes

• This document is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• It is a marketing communication under MiFID II and not investment research.
• It is intended for professional clients and relevant persons only.
• No liability is accepted for any losses arising from reliance on this document.
• Information is based on public sources and may not be independently verified.
• All estimates and opinions are as of 09 July 2018 and may change without notice.
• The document may contain simulated performance data and is not indicative of future results.
• It does not constitute a prospectus or public offering in the U.S., Canada, or other jurisdictions.
• Options, ETFs, and Convertible Securities may involve high risk and are not suitable for all investors.
• Restricted securities may not be registered under U.S. law and are only available to QIBs or non-U.S. persons.

🌐 Additional Information

• BNP Paribas Global Markets Website: www.globalmarkets.bnpparibas.com
• Bloomberg Research Services:
  • Fixed Income Research (BPFR)
  • G10 Interest Rate Research (BPBS)
  • Emerging Markets Research (BPFR)
  • Market Economics (BPEC)

📞 Production and Editorial Team

📜 Legal Disclaimer

This document is for information purposes only and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent. It is not intended to provide investment, tax, or legal advice. Transactions may involve high risk and are subject to confidentiality and regulatory requirements.