CBRE+2023太平洋地区房地产市场展望-53页_11mb

报告摘要

Australia and New Zealand are expected to grow at +1.7% and +1.0% in 2023, respectively, with inflation moderating.
Interest rates are near peaks, stabilizing to reduce transaction anxiety; Australian cash rates may peak at 3.1%.
Cap rates could expand by 25bps-100bps in 2023 due to rising rates.
Migration is key to economic growth, with Australia targeting 235,000 new migrants.

Focus shifts to Industrial, Logistics, Residential, and Residential-to-Rent due to supply constraints.
Cap rates widening, but asset values resilient with higher rent growth assumptions.
Transaction volumes may decline mid-single digits in 2023, rebounding in 2024.
Opportunities in inner-city locations and CBDs driven by population growth and tourism.

Industrial & Logistics: High single-digit rent growth due to low vacancy; supply pipeline at record high.
Office: Premium locations favored; vacancy tightens in CBDs; rent growth positive but supply reduced.
Retail: Discounted; retail spend grows above inflation; supply constrained, with bifurcation to premium/value segments.
Residential: Low vacancy rates; high rent growth (30% cumulative over five years); supply 40-45% below 2017 peaks.
Hotels: Occupancy improving with tourism recovery; ADR growth moderating.

CBD resurgence supported by shorter commutes and in-person interactions.
Construction costs easing, aiding development projects.
ESG becoming key, with energy efficiency and emissions targets driving real estate decisions.

Economic recovery supports demand but rates stability is crucial.
Investment opportunities in high-demand urban areas; Industrial and Residential sectors show strong potential.
Market resilience expected as vacancy tightens across most asset classes, despite rate hikes.

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