2015年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of_Armenia_Export-led_Industrial_Development_Strategy___Implementation_Review_and_Recommendations_on_New_Toolset_122页_2mb

Summary of Report No. ACS14153: Export-Led Industrial Development Strategy - Implementation Review and Recommendations on New Toolset

Core Content

The report provides an implementation review and policy recommendations for Armenia's Export-Led Industrial Development Strategy (ELIDS), focusing on how the country can transition from a resource-based economy to one driven by high-value and knowledge-intensive industries.

Main Points

1. Background and Approach of the Export-Led Industrial Strategy

• The global financial crisis highlighted the need for a shift in Armenia's economic development policy.
• The country's long-term growth prospects were uncertain due to the dominance of nontradable sectors.
• The ELIDS aims to improve the business environment and promote sector-specific initiatives to expand exports and foster international competitiveness.
• The strategy outlines six key clusters for growth in the jumpstart phase: food, tourism, health, light industry, jewelry/diamonds, and high tech.
• The vision is to transform Armenia into a hub for high-value and knowledge-based goods and services through creative human capital.

2. Implementation and Results

• Between 2010 and 2013, total exports increased by 13% (CAGR), reaching nearly US$1.5 billion.
• Exports from the target sectors grew faster than the overall economy, with a 17% CAGR.
• The share of these sectors in total exports increased from 23.3% to 26%.
• The export-to-GDP ratio rose from 10.9% to 14.1%, and the share of tradable sectors in GDP increased from 29% to 32%.
• However, progress has been uneven across sectors, with some showing better results due to strong collaboration and active private sector leadership.

3. Challenges in Implementation

• There are gaps in execution capacity, inadequate resources, and bureaucratic inertia.
• The strategy has not been fully implemented due to lack of synchronization between policy development and execution.
• The initial implementation process was not as dynamic as expected, with slow progress in some sectors.

4. Growth Agenda and Policy Recommendations

• The growth agenda emphasizes sustainable and long-term economic development.
• Two major components are:
  • Sustained improvement of the business environment and national assets portfolio.
  • Fostering economic activity in areas where competitive advantages exist through vertical interventions.
• Key policy focus areas include:
  • High-quality infrastructure development.
  • Enhancing education and training.
  • Easing access to affordable capital.
  • Promoting exports and country/product branding.
  • Building a collaborative culture within clusters.

5. Recommendations for the New Toolset

• Public-Private Partnerships (PPPs): Synchronization with other economic initiatives is critical for success.
• Sector-Wide Initiatives: Focus on addressing bottlenecks in cluster value chains.
• Institutional Restructuring: The Development Foundation of Armenia (DFA) was created to consolidate the Industrial Development Fund (IDF), ADA, and NCFA.
• New Support Tools:
  • Skills vouchers and skills enhancement programs.
  • Graduates-for-growth program to facilitate hiring.
  • Targeted advisory and managerial capacity building.
  • Sales presentations in target markets.
  • Tax exemptions for strategic investments.
  • Land and property transfers at low prices.
  • R&D cost sharing.
  • Free land for MNC R&D centers.
  • Collaborative research grants.

Key Information

• Currency Unit: Armenian Dram (AMD), with 1 USD = 485 AMD.
• Target Sectors: Food, tourism, health, light industry, jewelry/diamonds, and high tech.
• Growth Indicators: The export-to-GDP ratio, productivity gaps, and the sophistication of export structure are critical for assessing economic growth.
• Institutional Changes: The DFA was formed to streamline the implementation of the industrial policy.
• Challenges: The government faces risks such as limited administrative capacity, political interference, and the inability to identify and eliminate non-viable sectors.

Conclusion

The ELIDS represents a strategic shift in Armenia's economic development policy, aiming to diversify exports and build a competitive, knowledge-based economy. While initial results are promising, the implementation has been uneven, and there is a need for improved coordination, institutional restructuring, and targeted support tools to ensure long-term success.