20260828-招银国际-Operating_efficiency_gains_drive_higher_medium-term_earnings_guidance_7页_1mb

Baozun (BZUN US) Summary

Core Content

Baozun (BZUN US) released its 2Q26 financial results, which showed revenue of RMB2.7bn, a 7.5% increase year-over-year, matching the Bloomberg consensus. The company's non-GAAP operating profit (OP) reached RMB74mn, surpassing the consensus of RMB44mn, reflecting improved operating profitability across both Baozun E-commerce (BEC) and Baozun Brand Management (BBM) segments.

Key Financial Highlights

• Revenue:

  • 2Q26: RMB2.7bn (+7.5% YoY)
  • FY24A: RMB9,422mn
  • FY25A: RMB9,945mn
  • FY26E: RMB10,743mn (up 8.0% YoY)
  • FY27E: RMB11,786mn (up 9.7% YoY)
  • FY28E: RMB12,848mn (up 9.0% YoY)

• Non-GAAP Operating Profit:

  • 2Q26: RMB74mn (up from RMB6mn in 2Q25)
  • FY26E: RMB224mn (up from RMB180mn in 2025)
  • FY27E: RMB464mn
  • FY28E: RMB647mn

• Adjusted Net Profit:

  • FY26E: RMB195mn
  • FY27E: RMB365mn
  • FY28E: RMB481mn

• Operating Margin:

  • 2Q26: 2.3%
  • FY26E: 2.1%
  • FY27E: 3.9%
  • FY28E: 5.0%

• Adjusted Net Profit Margin:

  • FY26E: 1.8%
  • FY27E: 3.1%
  • FY28E: 3.7%

• ROE:

  • FY26E: 4.0%
  • FY27E: 8.0%
  • FY28E: 9.8%

• Net gearing:

  • FY26E: 1.1%
  • FY27E: 3.6%
  • FY28E: (6.4)%

Business Segment Performance

• Baozun E-commerce (BEC):

  • 2Q26 revenue: RMB2.3bn (+4.7% YoY)
  • Non-GAAP operating profit: RMB107.1mn (up from RMB41.1mn in 2Q25)
  • 3Q26E forecast: non-GAAP operating loss of RMB13mn (seasonal)
  • Expected to benefit from distribution business expansion in non-standardized categories

• Baozun Brand Management (BBM):

  • 2Q26 revenue: RMB486mn (+21.9% YoY)
  • Non-GAAP operating loss: RMB33mn (narrowing from RMB35mn in 2Q25)
  • 3Q26E forecast: non-GAAP operating loss of RMB35mn (narrowing from RMB39mn in 3Q25)
  • Supported by same-store sales growth at Gap and revenue contributions from new brands like Hunter and Sweaty Betty

Forecast and Guidance

• Revenue CAGR (2025–2028E): 9% (previously 6%)
• Non-GAAP OP target for 2028E: Over RMB700mn (up from RMB550mn)
• Non-GAAP OP forecasts (2026E–2028E): RMB276mn, RMB517mn, RMB701mn (up from RMB231mn, RMB413mn, RMB560mn)
• SOTP-based target price (US$): US$4.23 (up from US$3.98)

Valuation

• Equity Value (RMB mn):
  • BEC: RMB1.6bn (up from RMB1.3bn)
  • BBM: RMB791mn (up from RMB769mn)
  • Net cash: RMB1.8bn
  • Holding company discount: 60%
  • Total equity value: RMB1.685bn (US$246mn)

Analyst Ratings

• CMBIGM Rating: BUY
• Target Price: US$4.23
• Current Price: US$3.02
• Up/Downside: 40.1%

Share Performance

• 1-month return: 4.5% (absolute), -2.1% (relative)
• 3-month return: 18.0% (absolute), 19.6% (relative)
• 6-month return: 20.3% (absolute), 2.8% (relative)

Shareholding Structure

• Jun Wang: 16.4%
• Schroders: 7.4%

Stock Data

• Market Cap (US$ mn): 175.7
• Avg 3 mths t/o (US$ mn): 0.2
• 52w High/Low (US$): 4.77 / 2.10
• Total Issued Shares (mn): 58.2

Summary of Changes in Forecast

• Revenue:

  • 2026E: RMB10,743mn (+0.9% from previous forecast)
  • 2027E: RMB11,786mn (+4.4%)
  • 2028E: RMB12,848mn (+8.8%)

• Gross Profit:

  • 2026E: RMB7,917mn (+1.9%)
  • 2027E: RMB8,698mn (+5.5%)
  • 2028E: RMB9,482mn (+9.8%)

• Operating Profit:

  • 2026E: RMB224mn (+24.6%)
  • 2027E: RMB464mn (+28.4%)
  • 2028E: RMB647mn (+27.3%)

• Non-GAAP Net Profit:

  • 2026E: RMB195mn (+12.5%)
  • 2027E: RMB365mn (+17.8%)
  • 2028E: RMB481mn (+17.2%)

• GPM:

  • 2026E: 73.7% (+0.7 ppt)
  • 2027E: 73.8% (+0.4 ppt)
  • 2028E: 73.8% (+0.2 ppt)

• OPM:

  • 2026E: 2.1% (+0.4 ppt)
  • 2027E: 3.9% (+1.3 ppt)
  • 2028E: 5.0% (+1.9 ppt)

• Non-GAAP NPM:

  • 2026E: 1.8% (+0.2 ppt)
  • 2027E: 3.1% (+0.4 ppt)
  • 2028E: 3.7% (+0.3 ppt)

Conclusion

Baozun is expected to benefit from ongoing operating efficiency gains and the adoption of AI, which will support further profitability improvements. The company's revenue growth is anticipated to remain healthy, with a revised 2025–2028E revenue CAGR of 9%, driven by growth in both BEC and BBM. The SOTP-based target price has been raised to US$4.23, reflecting improved financial forecasts and the company's strategic focus on optimizing operations and expanding brand management services. The overall outlook remains positive, with a BUY rating maintained.