20150722-申万宏源研究_香港_-Trading_calls_SWS_Top_picks_for_the_next_three_months__Jul_2015__24页_1mb
报告摘要
SWS Trading Calls Summary - July 2015
Analyst Information
- Analyst: Anthony Hu, CFA
- ID: A0230511040064
- Email: huxh@swsresearch.com
- Phone: +86 21 2329 7295
Summary of Trading Calls
- Period Covered: 16 June - 21 July 2015
- Performance of Trading BUY List:
- Total Return: -10.01%
- Outperformed Benchmark (MXICN): 12.08%
- Performance of Trading SELL List: Not provided in detail, but the only company added to the SELL list is GCL-POLY Energy Holdings (3800:HK) due to a negative surprise in its 1H15 results.
- Key Changes in the Lists:
- Removed from BUY List:
- YY (YY:US) due to potential privatisation.
- Kangda International Environmental (6136:HK) due to lack of short-term catalysts.
- Added to SELL List: GCL-POLY Energy Holdings (3800:HK) due to poor performance and negative surprises.
- Removed from BUY List:
Trading BUY List (17 Companies)
| Code | Company Name | GICS II | Market Cap (US$m) | 14PE | 15PE | 16PE | 15PB | EPS 14-16 Cagr | Closing Price (HK$/US$) | Target Price (HK$/US$) | Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3328 | BANK OF COMMUNICATIONS CO-H | Banks | 81,398 | 6.94 | 6.51 | 5.14 | 1.07 | 3.86% | 7.16 | 10.10 | 41.34% |
| 1988 | CHINA MINSHENG BANKING-H | Banks | 53,954 | 5.90 | 5.53 | 4.80 | 1.07 | 4.88% | 9.13 | 12.40 | 35.93% |
| 3618 | CHONGQING RURAL COMMERCIAL-H | Banks | 7,307 | 5.80 | 5.16 | 4.30 | 0.96 | 11.65% | 6.09 | 8.40 | 37.44% |
| 1157 | ZOOMLION HEAVY INDUSTRY - H | Capital Goods | 7,380 | 15.09 | 11.74 | 10.74 | 0.61 | 60.36% | 4.17 | 4.80 | 15.35% |
| 257 | CHINA EVERBRIGHT INTL LTD | Commercial & Professional Services | 7,671 | 24.44 | 18.93 | 13.44 | 3.33 | 36.69% | 13.26 | 15.40 | 16.21% |
| 3818 | CHINA DONGXIANG GROUP CO | Consumer Durables & Apparel | 1,471 | 43.60 | 34.88 | 25.15 | 0.91 | -45.77% | 2.06 | 2.50 | 20.87% |
| 6881 | CHINA GALAXY SECURITIES CO-H | Diversified Financials | 9,856 | 14.14 | 11.82 | 9.67 | 1.20 | 20.83% | 8.01 | 16.50 | 105.37% |
| 6837 | HAITONG SECURITIES CO LTD-H | Diversified Financials | 32,524 | 14.62 | 10.74 | 9.58 | 1.47 | 44.05% | 15.66 | 22.70 | 44.96% |
| 347 | ANGANG STEEL CO LTD-H | Materials | 6,733 | 24.62 | 18.47 | 12.36 | 0.52 | 35.87% | 4.30 | 7.70 | 79.07% |
| 1813 | KWG PROPERTY HOLDING LTD | Real Estate | 2,453 | 4.02 | 3.41 | 2.70 | 0.67 | 15.34% | 6.45 | 6.60 | 2.33% |
| 3377 | SINO-OCEAN LAND HOLDINGS | Real Estate | 5,420 | 5.74 | 4.95 | 3.88 | 0.73 | 22.13% | 5.58 | 6.60 | 18.82% |
| 1918 | SUNAC CHINA HOLDINGS LTD | Real Estate | 3,333 | 4.66 | 3.70 | 2.90 | 1.00 | 32.90% | 7.60 | 13.90 | 83.16% |
| CTRP | Ctrip.COM INTERNATIONAL-ADR | Retailing | 10,429 | 86.71 | 72.65 | 64.71 | 6.54 | 100.86% | 74.18 | 84.80 | 14.30% |
| 777 | NETDRAGON WEBSOFT INC | Software & Services | 1,614 | 76.80 | 72.65 | 64.71 | 2.20 | 2.82% | 25.15 | 35.00 | 39.17% |
| 699 | CAR INC | Transportation | 5,042 | 43.56 | 36.50 | 28.80 | 4.61 | 49.24% | 16.48 | 14.60 | -11.41% |
| 384 | CHINA GAS HOLDINGS LTD | Utilities | 8,286 | 35.54 | 25.39 | 18.47 | 2.94 | 24.72% | 12.84 | 21.00 | 63.86% |
| 1363 | CT ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LTD | Utilities | 2,119 | 16.32 | 13.21 | 10.74 | 5.70 | 27.80% | 10.74 | 13.60 | 26.63% |
Trading SELL List (1 Company)
| Code | Company Name | GICS II | Market Cap (US$m) | 14PE | 15PE | 16PE | 15PB | EPS 14-16 Cagr | Closing Price (HK$/US$) | Target Price (HK$/US$) | Potential |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3800 | GCL-POLY ENERGY HOLDINGS LTD | Semiconductors & Semiconductor | 3,537 | 7.08 | 7.08 | 7.08 | 1.33 | 41.42% | 1.77 | 2.00 | 12.99% |
Key Insights
- The Trading BUY list underperformed the MSCI International China Price Index (MXICN) by 3.35% over the period.
- The Trading BUY list had a cumulative return of 22.25% since the start of the list, outperforming the benchmark by 12.08%.
- The Trading SELL list had a cumulative return of -10.01%, with only GCL-POLY Energy Holdings added due to negative results.
- The key assumptions for the BUY list include no hard landing in the Chinese economy, increasing liquidity, and stable growth in the relevant sectors.
- How we differ from consensus:
- For banks, the focus is on those with strong customer loyalty and fewer investment channels (e.g., CRCB and CMBC).
- For securities companies, the emphasis is on diversified revenue structures and long-term growth potential.
- For environmental companies, the focus is on growth in the WWT and sludge treatment industries and favorable government policies.
- Catalysts for the BUY list include targeted easing, new urbanization, and policy support for the industry.
- Major Risks include macroeconomic slowdown, liquidity issues, and sector-specific challenges like credit crunch or project delays.
Performance Highlights
- CHONGQING RURAL COMMERCIAL-H (3618:HK):
- Investment Rating: Outperform
- Closing Price (21 July 2015): HK$6.09
- Target Price: HK$8.40
- Potential: 37.44%
- Rationale: Low valuation, strong fundamentals, and a strategic focus on county areas.
- HAITONG SECURITIES (6837:HK):
- Investment Rating: BUY
- Closing Price (21 July 2015): HK$15.66
- Target Price: HK$22.70
- Potential: 44.96%
- Rationale: Strong branch network, diversified revenue structure, and positive outlook for A-share market participation.
- CHINA GALAXY SECURITIES (6881:HK):
- Investment Rating: Outperform
- Closing Price (21 July 2015): HK$8.01
- Target Price: HK$16.50
- Potential: 105.37%
- Rationale: Strong client base, regulatory relationships, and growth in A-share participation.
- CT ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LTD (1363:HK):
- Investment Rating: BUY
- Closing Price (21 July 2015): HK$10.74
- Target Price: HK$13.60
- Potential: 26.63%
- Rationale: Growth in the industrial WWT and sludge treatment industries, and potential for higher service charges.
Financial Summary and Valuation Highlights
- CHONGQING RURAL COMMERCIAL-H (3618:HK):
- PE: 4.65 (2015E), 4.17 (2016E), 3.88 (2017E)
- PB: 1.07 (2015E), 0.93 (2016E), 0.80 (2017E)
- EPS CAGR: 11.65%
- HAITONG SECURITIES (6837:HK):
- PE: 11.6 (2015E), 8.6 (2016E), 6.4 (2017E)
- PB: 1.8 (2015E), 1.55 (2016E), 1.27 (2017E)
- EPS CAGR: 44.05%
- CHINA GALAXY SECURITIES (6881:HK):
- PE: 11.25 (2015E), 9.29 (2016E), 6.03 (2017E)
- PB: 1.8 (2015E), 1.55 (2016E), 1.27 (2017E)
- EPS CAGR: 20.83%
- CT ENVIRONMENTAL GROUP LTD (1363:HK):
- PE: 23.3 (2015E), 17.2 (2016E), 12.1 (2017E)
- PB: 5.85 (2015E), 4.36 (2016E), 3.50 (2017E)
- EPS CAGR: 27.80%
Conclusion
The SWS Trading BUY list includes a diverse set of companies across various sectors with a focus on those that are expected to benefit from favorable macroeconomic conditions, policy support, and sector-specific growth opportunities. The SWS Trading SELL list contains only one company, GCL-POLY Energy Holdings, due to a negative surprise in its first-half results. The report highlights the importance of monitoring economic conditions, liquidity changes, and industry-specific developments for investment decisions.
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