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CRITICAL QUESTIONS: The Trilateral Summit – Prospects for U.S., Afghan, and Pakistan Cooperation

Core Content

The document discusses the Trilateral Summit between the U.S., Afghanistan, and Pakistan, held in Washington, D.C., on May 6, 2009. This summit was a significant diplomatic event, elevated from a ministerial-level meeting to a presidential-level dialogue, reflecting the U.S. government's high-level concern for the security dynamics in the region.

The summit occurs amid a deteriorating security situation in both Afghanistan and Pakistan. In Afghanistan, the U.S. surge is underway, and upcoming elections are expected to impact the region's stability. In Pakistan, the military has initiated a major offensive against the Taliban in the Swat District, indicating heightened tensions.

Main Questions and Views

Q1: What does the U.S. government want?

• Strategic Goals: The U.S. aims to build support for its regional strategy, strengthen international resolve, and improve security and public safety trends in both countries.
• Regional Approach: A coordinated effort against al Qaeda and the Taliban is a key component of the administration's plan.
• Public Awareness: Increasing public awareness and support in the U.S. for the ongoing operations in the region.
• Personal Engagement: President Obama will use this summit to develop his own perspective on the region's challenges.
• Timing and Context: The summit is crucial as the next year and a half will see key partner nations withdrawing and the Afghan National Army expanding, which could affect security outcomes.

Q2: What do Afghanistan and Pakistan want?

• Afghanistan's Priorities:

  • Restoration of Public Safety: A key demand for the Afghan government.
  • International Assistance: Broader benefits from international aid.
  • Cross-Border Sanctuaries: Continued concerns over Taliban sanctuaries in Pakistan.
  • Impact of Troop Surge: Assessing the effects of the U.S. military surge on Afghan security and stability.

• Pakistan's Priorities:

  • Fiscal Support: Substantial financial assistance from the U.S.
  • Counterinsurgency Training: Enhanced military capabilities to combat the Taliban.
  • Social and Political Reform: Internal reforms to address political instability and public discontent.
  • Avoiding Military Focus: A warning that discussions shifting to military equipment and accountability may indicate a loss of strategic focus.

Key Information

• Summit Structure: President Obama will meet with Karzai and Zardari separately before engaging in joint conversations.
• Security Context: The U.S. surge and Afghan elections are central to the U.S. strategy. In Pakistan, the Swat offensive signals a major military shift.
• Urgency and Cooperation: Despite past tensions, the deteriorating security situation has created urgency for cooperation. The three leaders currently share more common ground than previously.
• Expected Outcome: While no major breakthroughs are expected, the summit may reduce friction between the countries and reset the trilateral relationship towards true partnership.

Conclusion

The trilateral summit represents a critical opportunity for the U.S., Afghanistan, and Pakistan to address shared security challenges and realign their strategies. Although the summit may not yield immediate, tangible results, it is expected to foster better coordination and improve diplomatic relations. The U.S. seeks to unify international efforts, while Afghanistan and Pakistan focus on security improvements and internal stability. The outcome will depend on the balance between strategic cooperation and domestic political considerations.

Authors: Frederick Barton, Karin von Hippel, and Mark Irvine
Organization: Post-Conflict Reconstruction Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS)
Publication: Critical Questions, a series by CSIS that provides nonpartisan analysis on international policy issues.