世界银行-更热的星球，更热的工厂：气候变化对生产力的不均衡影响（英）-2024.5-37页_1mb

Summary: Uneven Impacts of Climate Change on Firm-Level Productivity

This study analyzes the effects of climate change on firm productivity using data merged from the World Bank Enterprise Survey (WBES) covering 154 countries (190,000 firms) and gridded climate data from the Copernicus Climate Change Service.

Key Findings:

1. Temperature Impacts Nonlinear and Uneven

   • Productivity decreases significantly in firms located in hotter climate zones (WBT ≥ 25.7°C) with a 1°C increase in temperature, leading to a 20.8% decline in annual sales per worker compared to firms in the coldest zones.
   • A turning point exists at WBT ~25.7°C beyond which higher temperatures negatively impact productivity.

2. Heterogeneity Across Firm Types:

   • Firm Size: Large firms and those in manufacturing experience disproportionately larger productivity losses compared to small firms.
   • Industry: Manufacturing firms are most affected due to higher work intensity and physical labor exposure.
   • Income Groups and Geography: Firms in low-income countries, particularly in hot climate zones, face severe losses, while high-income countries show no significant impact in the hottest zones.

3. Policy Implications

   • Climate change exacerbates global inequality by disproportionately affecting poorer countries and tropical regions.
   • Urgent adaptation investments and international mechanisms are needed to support vulnerable regions.

Methodological Contribution

• Employs wet-bulb temperature (wet-bulb temperature), a better measure of heat stress than dry-bulb temperature.
• Provides one of the most comprehensive global analyses of climate impacts on non-agricultural firms.
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