20211107-高盛-GS_Macro_Outlook_2022_The_Long_Road_to_Higher_Rate_19页_278kb

Goldman Sachs' 2022 Global Macro Outlook report emphasizes a strong global economic recovery despite slowing from pandemic-related peaks. Key points include:

• Global Growth: 2022 global GDP is forecasted at 4.5%, above potential, driven by medical improvements and pent-up consumption. Advanced economies like the US and UK show acceleration, while China and Brazil face headwinds, with India and Russia seeing modest growth.

• Inflation and Monetary Policy: Core inflation surged unexpectedly due to excess demand and supply constraints, prompting an earlier Fed liftoff to July 2022. Gradual rate hikes are expected, with neutral real rates likely rising due to fiscal and climate investments.

• Long-Term Policies: Real policy rates will rise above current market prices, averaging ½pp higher than pre-pandemic levels, supporting a sustained economic expansion.

• Key Risks: Transition risks include inflation persistence from supply chain issues and wage pressures, offsetting earlier pandemic-related declines.

• Monetary Normalization: Central banks like the BoC and BoE are advancing, while the ECB and RBA lag due to soft inflation indicators.

This report highlights inflation as a primary risk and posits a "long road" to higher rates compared to post-GFC normalization.