2011年-ECB欧洲央行_ECB_staff_macroeconomic_projections_for_the_euro_area_5页_205kb

ECB Staff Macroeconomic Projections for the Euro Area (2011–2012)

Core Content

The ECB staff macroeconomic projections for the euro area, based on data up to 25 August 2011, outline the expected trends in real GDP growth and inflation for the years 2011 and 2012. These projections are part of a broader set of Eurosystem staff projections and are presented in ranges to reflect uncertainty.

Main Projections

Real GDP Growth

• 2011: Projected to grow between 1.4% and 1.8%.
• 2012: Projected to grow between 0.4% and 2.2%.

Inflation (HICP)

• 2011: Expected to range between 2.5% and 2.7%.
• 2012: Projected to range between 1.2% and 2.2%.

Key Components of GDP

Comparison with June 2011 Projections

• Real GDP:
  • 2011: Revised from 1.5–2.3% to 1.4–1.8%.
  • 2012: Revised from 0.6–2.8% to 0.4–2.2%.
• HICP Inflation:
  • 2011: Range unchanged at 2.5–2.7%.
  • 2012: Narrowed from 1.1–2.3% to 1.2–2.2%.

Technical Assumptions

Interest Rates

• Short-term interest rates (three-month EURIBOR) are expected to average 1.3% in 2011 and 1.0% in 2012.
• Euro area ten-year nominal government bond yields are projected to average 4.2% in both years.

Commodity Prices

• Brent crude oil: USD 110.1 in 2011, USD 106.5 in 2012.
• Non-energy commodities: Rise by 19.6% in 2011, decline by 0.8% in 2012.

Exchange Rates

• Bilateral exchange rates are assumed to remain unchanged at the levels prevailing in the two-week period ending on 18 August 2011.
• EUR/USD: 1.42 in 2011, 1.43 in 2012.
• Effective exchange rate of the euro: Expected to appreciate by 0.2% in 2011 and depreciate by 0.2% in 2012.

Fiscal Policy

• Based on national budget plans as of 19 August 2011.
• Includes policy measures already approved or likely to pass.
• Government investment is expected to decline until the end of 2012 due to fiscal consolidation.

International Environment

• Global Growth: Moderated in recent months, with a projected average growth of 4.1% in 2011 and 4.4% in 2012 outside the euro area.
• Euro Area Foreign Demand: Expected to grow by 7.0% in 2011 and 6.8% in 2012.
• Challenges: Adverse effects from the Japanese natural and nuclear disasters, high commodity prices, weak US housing market, and continued fiscal and credit constraints in the euro area.
• Emerging Economies: Expected to maintain relatively robust growth, with overheating pressures persisting.

Price and Cost Projections

• HICP Inflation in August 2011: 2.5%.
• 2011: Inflation is projected to remain above 2%, driven by past commodity price increases.
• 2012: Inflation is expected to moderate, with domestic price pressures rising slowly due to increasing labor costs and pass-through from commodity prices.
• Compensation per employee: Projected to grow moderately, with a decline in 2011 due to lagged wage responses to inflation, and a slow increase thereafter.
• Unit labour costs: Expected to rebound in 2011 and grow faster in 2012, limiting profit margin growth.

Comparison with Other Forecasts

Key Information

• Projections are based on market expectations and national budget plans up to specific cut-off dates.
• The methodology accounts for historical regularity and exceptional events.
• Uncertainty and adverse factors, such as sovereign debt tensions and weak domestic demand, are expected to dampen growth in the near term.
• Exports are expected to benefit from rising foreign demand, while domestic demand will gradually strengthen.
• Inflation is expected to remain elevated in 2011, then moderate in 2012.
• Fiscal consolidation and credit supply conditions are key factors affecting the euro area's economic outlook.