eia-钻探生产力报告（英文）-2018.5-11页

U.S. Energy Information Administration Drilling Productivity Report - May 2018

Core Content Overview

The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) publishes a Drilling Productivity Report for seven key tight oil and shale gas regions, analyzing drilling data through April and projected production through June. The report provides insights into the monthly changes in oil and natural gas production, distinguishing between new-well and legacy (existing wells) contributions. It highlights the productivity of drilling rigs and the impact of well depletion and external factors on production trends.

Key Regions and Their Performance

Anadarko Region

• New-well oil production per rig: Increased by +5 thousand barrels/day month-over-month.
• New-well gas production per rig: Increased by +19 thousand cubic feet/day month-over-month.
• Legacy oil production change: +5 thousand barrels/day.
• Legacy gas production change: +8 million cubic feet/day.
• Total oil production change (Jun vs. May): +6 thousand barrels/day.
• Total gas production change (Jun vs. May): +166 million cubic feet/day.

Bakken Region

• New-well oil production per rig: +5 thousand barrels/day month-over-month.
• New-well gas production per rig: +201 million cubic feet/day month-over-month.
• Legacy oil production change: +5 thousand barrels/day.
• Legacy gas production change: +201 million cubic feet/day.
• Total oil production change (Jun vs. May): +8 thousand barrels/day.
• Total gas production change (Jun vs. May): +201 million cubic feet/day.

Eagle Ford Region

• New-well oil production per rig: +8 thousand barrels/day month-over-month.
• New-well gas production per rig: +201 million cubic feet/day month-over-month.
• Legacy oil production change: +8 thousand barrels/day.
• Legacy gas production change: +201 million cubic feet/day.
• Total oil production change (Jun vs. May): +8 thousand barrels/day.
• Total gas production change (Jun vs. May): +201 million cubic feet/day.

Haynesville Region

• New-well oil production per rig: +8 thousand barrels/day month-over-month.
• New-well gas production per rig: +37 thousand cubic feet/day month-over-month.
• Legacy oil production change: +3 thousand barrels/day.
• Legacy gas production change: +49 million cubic feet/day.
• Total oil production change (Jun vs. May): +3 thousand barrels/day.
• Total gas production change (Jun vs. May): +49 million cubic feet/day.

Niobrara Region

• New-well oil production per rig: +3 thousand barrels/day month-over-month.
• New-well gas production per rig: +49 million cubic feet/day month-over-month.
• Legacy oil production change: +3 thousand barrels/day.
• Legacy gas production change: +49 million cubic feet/day.
• Total oil production change (Jun vs. May): +3 thousand barrels/day.
• Total gas production change (Jun vs. May): +49 million cubic feet/day.

Permian Region

• New-well oil production per rig: +78 thousand barrels/day month-over-month.
• New-well gas production per rig: +225 million cubic feet/day month-over-month.
• Legacy oil production change: +3 thousand barrels/day.
• Legacy gas production change: +49 million cubic feet/day.
• Total oil production change (Jun vs. May): +78 thousand barrels/day.
• Total gas production change (Jun vs. May): +225 million cubic feet/day.

Main Points and Key Information

Definitions and Methodology

• New-well production per rig: Represents the estimated monthly contribution of an average rig to production from new wells, calculated using historical data and lagged by two months.
• Legacy production change: Reflects the change in production from existing wells, influenced primarily by depletion rates, but also by external factors like well freeze-offs or hurricanes.
• Total production change: Combines new-well and legacy production changes to show the net effect on production.
• Rig count: Based on weekly data from Baker Hughes, used to estimate drilling activity and its impact on production.

External Factors

• The report notes that estimated production changes do not account for external factors such as infrastructure constraints, bad weather, or environmental/economic shut-ins.
• These factors can significantly affect actual production levels and are not reflected in the estimates.

Data Sources

• The report utilizes data from:
  • Drilling Info for real-time rig location and production, permit, and spud data.
  • Baker Hughes for rig and well counts.
  • State-level oil and gas agencies for production, permit, and completion data in each region.

Summary of Trends

• Oil production across all regions showed positive month-over-month changes, ranging from +3 to +78 thousand barrels/day.
• Natural gas production also increased, with changes ranging from +49 to +225 million cubic feet/day.
• The monthly additions from one average rig are a key metric used to assess drilling productivity.
• Legacy wells contribute significantly to the production changes, especially in regions with high depletion rates.
• The EIA does not differentiate between oil-directed and gas-directed rigs due to the fact that many wells produce both oil and gas.

Notes

• The report provides historical data from 2007 to the present, showing the evolution of production trends.
• Data lag is observed, as rig count data is used to estimate new-well production, which lags by two months.
• The report does not include reworked or recompleted wells in its calculations.