2024-10-27-IMF-人工智能能为拉丁美洲和加勒比地区停滞不前的生产力做些什么_（英）_60页_3mb

Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) has faced stagnant productivity growth since 1980, limiting income convergence with the United States due to factors like a large informal sector, weak formal sector performance, and slow technology diffusion. Artificial Intelligence (AI) holds significant potential to enhance productivity, foster formal sector growth, and reduce informality, potentially accelerating convergence with advanced economies. However, LAC risks lagging in AI adoption due to structural barriers such as weak competition, poor governance, inadequate human capital, and limited innovation. AI could lead to labor market polarization, with some jobs automated and others augmented, but overall employment impacts may be positive, mirroring historical technological advancements that created new jobs. Key policy recommendations include fostering competition, improving regulatory frameworks (especially data protection and cybersecurity), investing in digital infrastructure and AI-focused education, and supporting workforce transitions to mitigate job displacement risks. Enhanced technology diffusion and human capital development are crucial for maximizing AI's benefits and ensuring equitable growth in the region.

Key Points:

• Historical Productivity Stagnation: LAC has not converged with the US since 1980, contrasting with East Asia and Europe. This is due to low productivity growth in both formal and informal sectors.
• AI Adoption Potential: AI can drive productivity gains in the formal sector, reduce informality, and enable technological leapfrogging, though adoption is lower than in advanced economies.
• Challenges to Adoption: Factors include weak competition, poor governance, human capital deficits, and a large informal sector, with LAC lagging in digital patents and innovation.
• Labor Market Effects: AI may displace some jobs (e.g., call center roles) but complement others (e.g., doctors through administrative support), leading to polarization; overall employment could increase due to job creation.
• Policy Recommendations: Focus on competition policies, regulatory improvements, digital infrastructure investment, education reform, and measures to formalize the economy and support workforce transitions.

References:

• IMF Working Paper WP/24/219.
• Authors: Bas Bakker, Sophia Chen, Dmitry Vasilyev, Olga Bespalova, Moya Chin, Daria Kolpakova, Archit Singhal, Yuanchen Yang.