IMF-超越年平均值：季节性气温对美国各县就业增长的影响（英）-2023.6-34页_1mb

Summary: Beyond the Annual Averages: Impact of Seasonal Temperature on Employment Growth in US Counties

This working paper analyzes the dynamic and nuanced effects of seasonal temperature variations on private sector employment growth across U.S. counties, using quarterly data from 1990 to 2021. Key findings include:

• Seasonal Contrasting Effects: Higher winter temperatures significantly boost employment growth, while higher summer temperatures significantly reduce it. The positive effect of winter warmth is short-lived, fading by spring and summer. In contrast, the negative impact of summer heat persists through subsequent quarters.

• Geographic Variation: The detrimental effects of higher summer temperatures are more severe in hotter U.S. states (e.g., Arizona, New Mexico), while cooler states may even benefit from warmer summers. No clear correlation was found between winter warmth and state winter climate.

• Sectors: Summer heat significantly reduces employment in sectors like Construction, Leisure and Hospitality, Trade, Transportation & Utilities, and Financial Activities. Warmer winters benefit primarily the Construction sector, though the benefits are short-lived.

• Temporal Dynamics: The impact of a hotter summer grows more severe in recent decades (2010-2021 compared to 1990-1999), suggesting limited adaptation to rising summer temperatures. Warmer winters have shown shrinking positive impacts, though the effect is still statistically smaller than that of summer heat.

• Robustness Checks: Findings hold across alternative specifications, including unweighted regressions, exclusion of extreme employment growth, recession periods, natural disasters, and precipitation controls. The heterogeneity of effects underscores the importance of analyzing temperature’s impact at finer geographic and temporal scales to better prepare for climate change adaptation.

This study challenges the simplistic notion of annual average temperature impacts and highlights the need to account for seasonal variations and local conditions when assessing climate change’s economic effects.