2015年-世界发展银行全球_Lebanon_Economic_Monitor_Fall_2015___The_Great_Capture_48页_3mb

Lebanon Economic Monitor Summary - Fall 2015

Core Content

The Lebanon Economic Monitor provides an analysis of key economic developments and policy changes in Lebanon over the past six months, placing them in a broader global and regional context. It assesses the implications of these developments on Lebanon's economic outlook and includes special focus areas on governance and the health sector.

Main Views

Economic Overview

• Growth Trends: Lebanon's real GDP growth has remained sluggish but stable in 2015, projected at around 2%, similar to 2014.
• Sector Performance:
  • The tourism sector rebounded significantly, with a 16.6% increase in tourist arrivals year-on-year (yoy) in the first eight months of 2015.
  • The real estate and construction sectors acted as a drag on growth, with construction permits and cement deliveries declining by 18.8% and 16.7%, respectively, in the first seven months of 2015.
• Output Gap:
  • The output gap turned negative by 2014, indicating the economy was operating below its potential.
  • The cumulative output gap, which was very large during 2000-2008, significantly narrowed and nearly closed by end-2014.

Fiscal Policy

• Fiscal Deficit: The fiscal deficit widened slightly in 2015, reaching 7.2% of GDP, but the primary surplus was maintained due to reduced transfers to the Electricity du Liban (EdL) and increased fiscal scrutiny.
• Foreign Reserves: Despite lower capital inflows, gross foreign exchange reserves at the Banque du Liban (BdL) are expected to rise to US$34.5 billion by the end of 2015 due to commercial banks repatriating foreign assets.

External Sector

• Current Account Deficit: The current account deficit is expected to narrow by 5 percentage points (pp) due to lower oil prices and reduced import volumes, but it will still remain high at 21% of GDP.
• Global Volatility: The EMBIG spread, which reflects idiosyncratic country risks, remained negative, indicating heightened vulnerability to global shocks.

Monetary Policy and Financial Markets

• Inflation and Exchange Rates: Headline inflation dropped from 2.7% in 2013 to 0.2% in 2015, and is expected to stay moderate in the medium term. Exchange rate stability has allowed for an expansionary monetary policy, including subsidized loans.
• Banking Sector: Lending to the private sector continued to respond to BdL's stimulus packages, while Lebanese banks' exposure to sovereign debt increased. Real deposits at commercial banks accelerated in 2015.

Key Information

Political and Governance Challenges

• Elite Capture: The Lebanese political system is plagued by elite capture, hidden behind confessional governance. This has led to poor governance, weak institutions, and paralysis in decision-making.
• Public Sector Failures: The public sector is increasingly governed by bribery and nepotism, leading to the failure of basic services and the inability to address urgent needs.
• Civil Discontent: Widespread protests and civil disobedience emerged due to the collapse of public services, particularly the garbage crisis, targeting the ruling political class for corruption and incompetence.

Health Sector

• Healthcare System: Lebanon's healthcare system is a mix of public and private institutions, but faces significant challenges.
• Spending Trends: Public health spending remains low, while household out-of-pocket spending is high. There is a disproportionate allocation of resources to curative rather than preventive care.
• Refugee Impact: The influx of Syrian refugees has had major implications on the health sector, including increased demand and strain on resources.
• Reforms: Despite challenges, the Ministry of Public Health implemented several reforms that contributed to the resilience of the system.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: EMBIG spread reflects idiosyncratic country risks.
• Figure 2: By 2014, the output gap turned negative.
• Figure 3: Cumulative output gap is falling again.
• Figure 4: Real GDP growth sluggish but stable in 2015.
• Figure 5: Tourism rebounds, but remains below pre-crisis levels.
• Figure 6: Retail trade stabilizes.
• Figure 7: ICT sector experiences robust growth.
• Figure 8: Consumer sentiment is volatile.
• Figure 9: PMI contraction persists.
• Figure 10: Fiscal deficit widens in 2014.
• Figure 11: Debt-to-GDP falls.
• Figure 12: Capital inflows regress.
• Figure 13: BdL increases foreign reserves.
• Figure 14: Inflation abates in 2015.
• Figure 15: Lending to the private sector responds to BdL stimulus.
• Figure 16: Lebanese banks' sovereign debt exposure increases.
• Figure 17: Commercial banks' assets grow.
• Figure 18: Real deposits at commercial banks accelerate.
• Figure 19: Global volatility translates into negative spread.
• Figure 20: Bribery and nepotism are pervasive in policy execution.
• Figure 21: Public funds are diverted into the coffers of politicians and civil servants.
• Figure 22: Nepotism in civil service recruitment is perceived as highest in MENA.
• Figure 23: Perceptions of nepotism in civil service recruitment are rising.
• Figure 24: Institutional quality in Lebanon is among the lowest globally.
• Figure 25: Trust in core public institutions is very low.
• Figure 26: Quality of governance has deteriorated since 2005.
• Figure 27: Civil justice in Lebanon is slow, unfair, ineffective, and corrupt.
• Figure 28: Physical public services rank very poorly in the world.
• Figure 29: Social public services in Lebanon are below MENA and global averages.
• Figure 30: Public service delivery is subject to spatial inequality.
• Figure 31: Hospital beds per 1000 population in Lebanon, MENA average, and other countries (1980–2011).
• Figure 32: Physicians per 1000 population in Lebanon, MENA average, and other countries (1980–2011).
• Figure 33: Total health spending per capita in Lebanon, MENA average, and other countries (1995–2011).
• Figure 34: Total health spending as a share of GDP in Lebanon, MENA average, and other countries (1995–2011).
• Figure 35: Public health expenditure as a share of total government expenditure versus income per capita.
• Figure 36: Population pyramid, Lebanon, male and female, 2012.
• Figure 37: Population pyramid, Lebanon, male and female, projected 2050.

Table 1: Correlation Coefficients Between the Output Gap and Various Regions

Conclusion

The Lebanon Economic Monitor highlights the challenges Lebanon faces, including systemic governance failures, the impact of the Syrian war, and the ongoing issue of corruption. While the economy has shown some resilience through improved security and periphery sectors, the long-term outlook remains uncertain without significant political and economic reforms. The health sector, though challenged, has seen some reform efforts that have bolstered its resilience. The report underscores the need for structural changes to address these deep-rooted issues and ensure sustainable development.