2030年路线图_俄罗斯可再生能源前景（英文版）_90页_5mb

REMAP 2030: Prospects for Renewable Energy in the Russian Federation

Core Content

The REmap 2030 report by IRENA provides an analysis of the potential for renewable energy (RE) development in the Russian Federation by 2030, comparing it with the Reference Case and exploring REmap Options that could accelerate the transition to a more sustainable energy mix.

Key Findings

• Renewable Energy Use in 2010:

  • Hydropower dominated the power generation sector, accounting for 70% of total final renewable energy use (0.6 EJ).
  • Bioenergy was the main source for heating in industry and buildings.
  • The share of renewables in total final energy consumption (TFEC) was 3.6%.

• By 2015:

  • Total installed renewable power generation capacity reached 53.5 GW, representing about 20% of Russia's total installed power generation capacity (253 GW).
  • Hydropower accounted for 51.5 GW, while bioenergy had 1.35 GW.
  • Solar PV and onshore wind had very small capacities of 460 MW and 111 MW respectively.

• Drivers for Renewable Energy Uptake:

  • Economic activity and job creation.
  • Science and technology development.
  • Energy supply to isolated areas.
  • Environmental quality improvement.

• Reference Case (2030):

  • Renewable energy share in TFEC is projected to reach 4.9%.
  • This includes plans to expand solar PV, onshore wind, and geothermal capacity to 5.9 GW by the end of 2024.
  • Total final renewable energy use is expected to increase from 0.6 EJ in 2010 to 1.1 EJ in 2030, equivalent to 5% of the country’s total energy demand.
  • Hydropower remains the dominant source, contributing more than half of the final renewable energy use.
  • Bioenergy accounts for nearly half of all renewable energy use by 2030, with solar PV and wind contributing 4%.

• REmap Case (2030):

  • Renewable energy share in TFEC is projected to increase to 11.3%.
  • In the power generation sector, the share is expected to reach 30%, with 20% from hydropower and 10% from wind, solar PV, and geothermal.
  • In the heating sector, the share is expected to reach 15%.
  • In the transport sector, the share is expected to rise to 8%, up from 1% in 2010.

• Capacity Projections under REmap:

  • Onshore wind capacity reaches 23 GW.
  • Solar PV capacity reaches 5 GW.
  • Bioenergy capacity reaches 26 GW.
  • Hydropower capacity reaches 94 GW.
  • Total renewable power generation increases from 169 TWh in 2010 to 487 TWh in 2030.

• Investment Needs:

  • Average annual investment required for the REmap scenario is USD 15 billion between 2010 and 2030.
  • Renewable power generation investment accounts for USD 13 billion per year.
  • End-use renewable energy investment accounts for USD 2 billion per year.

• Cost and Benefits:

  • The average substitution cost by 2030 is USD 8.7/GJ.
  • Solar PV and onshore wind are more cost-competitive in isolated regions but remain expensive in the wholesale market due to low natural gas prices.
  • Decentralised heating in buildings and industry is close to cost-competitiveness if low-cost biomass feedstocks are used.
  • When externalities such as health and climate change are considered, renewables under REmap could save up to USD 8 billion annually by 2030.

• Key Challenges:

  • Ensuring the supply of energy crops and biogas feedstocks, as demand may reach supply limits.
  • Addressing investment and market barriers for solar PV and wind.
  • Integrating renewables into existing energy policies and ensuring their implementation.
  • Continuing long-term energy planning to support the transition.

Main Sources and Assumptions

• The analysis is based on consultations with the Russian government and relevant stakeholders.
• Data from the draft Energy Strategy to 2035 is used as a reference.
• Energy prices and cost assumptions are provided in the annexes.
• Technology cost and performance data are also detailed in the annexes.
• Resource potential, including biomass, solar, and wind, is assessed based on IRENA's analysis.

Summary Table (Annex E)

• A detailed summary table is provided, outlining the projected renewable energy use and share across sectors and technologies for the Reference Case and REmap scenarios.

Conclusion

The REmap 2030 report highlights the significant potential for increasing renewable energy use in Russia, with the REmap scenario projecting a renewable share of 11.3% of TFEC by 2030. This requires substantial investment, supportive policies, and overcoming existing barriers to ensure the successful integration of renewables into the energy mix.