世界经济论坛-中东和北非的风险前景（地缘政治）（英文）-2019.4-13页_2mb

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Risks Landscape Summary

Core Content

This briefing paper, published in April 2019, provides an analysis of the risk environment in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, drawing on data from the Global Risks Perception Survey (2018–2019) and the Executive Opinion Survey (2018). It highlights the interplay between global and regional risks, emphasizing the need for coordinated, multistakeholder approaches to address complex challenges in the region.

Main Points

1. Global and Regional Risk Environment

• The Fourth Industrial Revolution is reshaping the global and regional risk landscape, bringing both opportunities and challenges.
• The MENA region, which is predominantly natural-resource dependent, faces heightened risks due to its limited focus on skills and innovation.
• Risks are increasingly interconnected, spanning national and regional boundaries, and require collaborative solutions.

2. Global Risks Affecting MENA

• Geo-economic divisions are intensifying, with global growth slowing and multilateral trading rules under threat.
• Climate change is a top global risk, with 85% of respondents expecting increased political confrontations.
• Cyber threats are rising, with 82% of respondents anticipating increased data theft and 80% expecting operational disruptions.

3. Regional Risks in MENA

• The top risks for doing business in the MENA region, as identified by the Executive Opinion Survey, include:
  • Energy price shock
  • Unemployment or underemployment
  • Terrorist attacks
  • Failure of regional and global governance
  • Fiscal crises
• Other significant risks include:
  • Unmanageable inflation
  • Cyber-attacks
  • Water crises
  • Illicit trade
  • Failure of financial mechanism or institution

4. Economic and Governance Vulnerabilities

• Energy price shocks are a major concern due to the region’s reliance on hydrocarbon revenues.
• Unemployment among youth remains a critical issue, with a 30% rate in 2017.
• Governance issues such as corruption, subsidies, and access to finance are seen as underlying causes of economic instability.
• IMF has warned about the risks of uncoordinated spending and high levels of borrowing in the region.

5. Security Risks and Perception of Insecurity

• Terrorist attacks rank third as a regional risk, despite a reported 38% decrease in attacks in 2017.
• The high proportion of incidents and deaths in the MENA region (31% and 44%, respectively) contributes to the perception of insecurity.
• Fragile states like Syria and Yemen are seen as sources of instability, with potential spillover effects on neighboring countries.

6. Need for Risk Mitigation and Resiliency

• Coordinated efforts are essential to address complex risks, as no single actor can manage them alone.
• Cross-border and cross-sector partnerships are necessary for effective risk mitigation, especially in areas such as climate change, cybersecurity, and economic resilience.
• The World Economic Forum emphasizes the importance of multistakeholder collaboration to build long-term resiliency and address systemic challenges.

Key Risks by Country

Methodology

• The report is based on data from two surveys:
  1. Global Risks Perception Survey – collected from a global multi-stakeholder community (916 responses).
  2. Executive Opinion Survey – conducted among business leaders (12,548 responses), focusing on regional risks for doing business.

Conclusion

The MENA region faces a complex and multifaceted risk environment, driven by both global and local factors. While the region is vulnerable to economic, governance, and security risks, the Fourth Industrial Revolution and global technological shifts are exacerbating these challenges. The paper underscores the importance of collaborative governance and multistakeholder engagement in mitigating risks and building resilience in the face of increasing uncertainty and fragmentation.