2018年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kenya_Staff_Report_for_the_2018_Article_IV_Consultation_and_Establishment_of_Performance_Criteria_for_the_Second_Review_Under_the_Stand_95页_2mb

Kenya: 2018 Article IV Consultation and Performance Criteria for Second Review

Core Content

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted the 2018 Article IV consultation and established new performance criteria for the second review under Kenya's Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). The consultation took place from February 19 to March 2, 2018, with the staff report finalized on May 31, 2018. The Executive Board approved a six-month extension of the SBA until September 14, 2018, allowing more time for the authorities to implement necessary reforms.

Main Points

Economic Performance

• Growth: Kenya experienced strong growth in recent years, averaging around 5.5% real GDP growth since the 2008 global crisis. However, growth slowed in 2017 due to a severe drought, extended political uncertainty, and weak bank lending, which was partly attributed to interest rate controls.
• Recovery: Growth accelerated in the fourth quarter of 2017 and is expected to increase to 5.7% in 2018, supported by improved weather conditions, completed infrastructure projects, and a stable political environment.
• Inflation: Inflation returned to the target range of 5±2.5% by 2018, with headline inflation fluctuating due to food and fuel price changes. Core inflation remained below 5% since late 2016.

Fiscal and Debt Issues

• Fiscal Deficit: Despite efforts, the fiscal deficit remained high, at 7.5% of GDP in 2017/18 and 5.7% in 2018/19. Public debt increased to 60.7% of GDP by June 2018.
• Debt Sustainability: The fiscal deficit and public debt trajectory threaten medium-term growth and poverty reduction. The IMF recommended continued fiscal consolidation and emphasized the need for realistic revenue projections to avoid ad hoc cuts in public investment.

Monetary Policy

• Interest Rate Controls: These controls were found to hinder lending, especially to small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), and reduce the effectiveness of monetary policy. The IMF encouraged the repeal or significant modification of these controls and the transition to an interest rate corridor framework.
• Monetary Framework: The Central Bank of Kenya was urged to modernize its monetary policy framework to align the policy rate with interbank market rates and improve the signaling role of monetary policy.

Structural Reforms

• Financial Sector: The IMF commended progress in strengthening the banking supervision framework and encouraged further development of the bank resolution framework and risk-based anti-money laundering (AML)/counter-terrorism financing (CTF) tools.
• Business Environment: Improvements in the business environment and financial inclusion were noted, but continued efforts were recommended to enhance competitiveness and governance.
• Public Financial Management: Reforms in public financial management and anti-corruption measures were highlighted as essential for maintaining macroeconomic stability and promoting inclusive growth.

Key Recommendations

• Fiscal Deficit Reduction: Authorities should focus on reducing the fiscal deficit to 7.5% in 2017/18 and 5.7% in 2018/19, with a focus on expenditure in the first year and revenue in the second.
• Interest Rate Controls: These should be removed or significantly modified, including the decoupling of the lending rate cap from the central bank policy rate, removal of a deposit rate floor, and increasing the lending cap to protect consumers.
• Monetary Policy Transition: The establishment of an interest rate corridor is recommended to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy.
• Structural Reforms: Continued efforts should be made in improving revenue administration, strengthening public financial management, modernizing the monetary policy framework, enhancing financial sector prudential frameworks, and improving the business environment and governance.

Risks and Challenges

• Political Uncertainty: The 2017 presidential election caused a temporary decline in investor and business confidence, affecting economic activity and reform implementation. Although political uncertainty has abated, some political fissures remain.
• External Shocks: Kenya remains vulnerable to external shocks, including capital outflows from emerging markets and tightening global monetary conditions.
• Fiscal Consolidation: Continued fiscal consolidation is essential to maintain debt sustainability, but must be balanced with the need for public investment and social spending.
• Credit Growth: Weak credit growth continues to hinder economic activity and private investment.

Performance Criteria

• Primary Balance Floor: A floor on the primary balance consistent with a 2017/18 fiscal deficit of 7.5% of GDP.
• International Reserves Floor: A minimum level of international reserves to ensure external stability.
• Public Debt Ceiling: A cap on new contracting or guaranteeing of public debt to prevent further accumulation.
• Monetary Policy Consultation Clause (MPCC): A clause to ensure alignment of monetary policy with broader economic goals.

Conclusion

The IMF Executive Board supported Kenya's efforts to maintain macroeconomic stability and improve the business environment. The six-month extension of the SBA provides additional time for the authorities to implement necessary reforms. The focus remains on fiscal consolidation, removal of interest rate controls, and structural reforms to promote inclusive growth and ensure long-term economic stability.