英文_高盛_2025年第一季度回顾_一季度利润表现强劲；积极捍卫市场领导地位_15页_1mb

报告摘要

Recommendation: Buy
Price Target: HK$172 (down from prior HK$200, upside 32.9%)
Key Highlights:
- Strong Profit Beat: Meituan delivered a solid 10% higher Q1 core local commerce profits than expected, driven by aggressive defense of food delivery leadership.
- Growth Drivers: Food delivery volumes grew at +9% year-over-year, sustained into Q1, with expectations for stable growth despite intensified subsidies. Instashopping showed robust volume growth (+27% year-over-year) and is a key growth segment.
- Challenges: Food delivery unit economics deteriorated due to industry-wide subsidies, leading to projected EBIT decline for FY2025. Competition is expected to fragment with JD.com and Alibaba increasing their food delivery efforts.
- Overseas and AI: Keeta's expansion, particularly in Saudi Arabia and Brazil, faces higher losses, while AI investments (e.g., LongCat platform) aim to drive efficiency, but incur costs.
Valuation: SOTP-based 12-month target of HK$172 per share, reflecting reduced profit outlook but confidence in food delivery leadership and overall growth.
Risks: Downside potential from worse-than-expected competition, slower subsidy normalization, labor costs, and regulatory pressures.