2025-05-25-世界银行-对拉丁美洲和加勒比地区的能源征税和补贴_来自总碳价格方法的见解（英）_116页_12mb

Taxing and Subsidizing Energy in Latin America and the Caribbean: Insights from a Total Carbon Price Approach

Executive Summary

This report examines the role of energy taxes and subsidies in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and their alignment with environmental goals. Using a Total Carbon Price (TCP) framework, which evaluates the combined effect of all taxes and subsidies on fuel prices relative to their carbon emissions, it finds that while regional averages are positive, there is significant misalignment across fuels. Diesel, natural gas, and liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) are often underpriced, hindering environmental targets and energy transitions. Gradual reforms, potentially combined with revenue recycling, can generate substantial fiscal revenue and reduce carbon emissions, with manageable economic and distributional impacts. However, political and technological challenges must be addressed to ensure successful implementation.

Key Insights

1. Energy System Transformation and Policy Relevance

- Energy systems and prices drive economic performance and must align with climate urgency.
- Modern energy technology development and geopolitical factors necessitate policy shifts.
- Technological neutrality (favoring low-carbon options) must be balanced with equity considerations.

2. Total Carbon Price Framework

- TCP measures all tax and subsidy impacts, expressed per ton of CO₂-equivalent emissions.
- Key findings: 
    - Regional average TCP is high, but fuel-specific misalignment exists (e.g., gasoline vs. diesel in many countries).
    - Diesel is significantly underpriced across the region despite higher health externalities.
    - Natural gas and LPG are often untaxed or subsidized.
- TCP helps identify consistent price signals needed to guide low-carbon investment decisions.

3. Fiscal Implications and Energy Reforms

- Revenue-neutral, gradual reforms could increase country-level carbon prices from below US$60/ton of CO₂ to adequate levels by 2030.
- Potential revenue gains of 0.5–1.0% of GDP (in specific scenarios) could cover part of fiscal gaps or fund green investments.
- Gradual, predictable price changes are critical to minimize economic disruption and allow market adaptation.

4. Distributional and Welfare Concerns

- Carbon pricing disproportionately impacts lower-income households, though gasoline is usually more regressive overall.
- Reforms must consider compensation strategies, particularly through well-targeted social transfers.
- Sector-specific roadmaps (e.g., transport, electricity, clean cooking) can complement carbon pricing and ease implementation.

5. Challenges and Recommendations

- Political economy constraints, informal markets, and technological barriers require tailored strategies.
- Multi-fuel reform roadmaps and sector-specific policy packages can reduce resistance and strengthen implementation.
- Further research on distributional impacts, behavioral responses, and technology adaptation costs is essential.

**Note:** This summary is based on a comprehensive analysis of a wide technical document. For complete details, consult the full report.