世界发展银行-China_Russia-2030-_-Implications-for-the-Horticulture-Sector-in-Central-Asia_111页_2mb

Summary of Document: China/Russia 2030: Implications for the Horticulture Sector in Central Asia

Core Content

This report examines the implications of China and Russia's 2030 market trends on the horticulture sector in Central Asia, with a focus on the opportunities and constraints for Central Asian fruit exporters. It highlights the potential for increased exports of fresh fruits and other horticultural products to these two major markets and provides policy recommendations to enhance competitiveness.

Main Viewpoints

• China's Fresh Fruit Import Market:

  • China has a significant fruit import market valued at $5.8 billion, with growing demand for fresh, high-quality, and diverse fruits.
  • Fresh cherries, grapes, plums, and apricots are among the most imported fruits, where Central Asian countries have a comparative advantage.
  • Between 2015 and 2017, China imported $1.5 billion worth of these fruits, and by 2030, the demand is projected to increase to $1.8 billion, with a total potential of $2.7 billion.
  • Chinese consumers prioritize nutrition, freshness, safety, and quality, with a preference for "specialty" fruits.
  • The Chinese market is highly fragmented and competitive, requiring close relationships with local counterparts and adherence to strict quality and safety standards.

• Russia 2030: New Trends in the Central Asian Traditional Market:

  • Russia remains a key market for Central Asian fruits, but modern retail chains are growing rapidly, replacing traditional markets.
  • Russian consumers are increasingly demanding high-quality, standardized, and branded products, with a preference for consistent supply and appearance.
  • Central Asian fruit suppliers face challenges in meeting these requirements, resulting in lower import prices (up to 30% less than major competitors like Chile and the US).
  • The region's fruit supply chains are fragmented, informal, and lack transparency, which hinders their ability to compete in the Russian market.

• Competitiveness of Central Asian Horticulture Exports:

  • Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan have strong export potential in fruits such as cherries, grapes, apricots (fresh and dry), plums (fresh and dried), and walnuts.
  • However, the potential is largely underutilized due to limited production volumes, inconsistent supply quality, and lack of access to financial and knowledge resources.
  • Smallholder farmers dominate the sector but lack the capacity to meet international market requirements.

• Success Story: Chile's Competitiveness in the Chinese Market:

  • Chile has successfully penetrated the Chinese market due to consistent trade and agricultural policy reforms.
  • Chilean fruit exports are supported by robust quality systems, logistics infrastructure, and branding strategies.
  • The country's ability to meet China's stringent standards and its focus on e-commerce and direct-to-consumer channels have contributed to its success.

• Policy Recommendations:

  • Central Asian governments should invest in improving production inputs, knowledge dissemination, and logistics infrastructure.
  • Integration of smallholder farmers into value chains is essential for increasing export volumes and quality.
  • Enhancing access to credit and extension services can support small farmers.
  • Strengthening food safety and quality control systems is necessary to meet international standards.
  • Increasing public investment in R&D and promoting export promotion activities can help Central Asian exporters compete in global markets.
  • Leveraging new trends such as e-commerce and direct-to-consumer models is crucial for future competitiveness.

Key Information

• Market Size: China's fruit import market is valued at $5.8 billion, with significant growth potential.
• Export Potential: By 2030, China's net imports of cherries, grapes, plums, and apricots are expected to reach $1.8 billion, with a total potential of $2.7 billion.
• Central Asian Share: China accounts for only a small share of Central Asian agri-food exports, with Uzbekistan capturing 96% of the value in 2018.
• Russian Market: Russia remains a key market for Central Asian fruits, but modern retail chains are increasingly dominant, imposing strict quality and safety standards.
• Constraints: Central Asian exporters face challenges in meeting international standards, logistics, and branding, as well as fragmented supply chains and limited access to resources.
• Labor Impact: Horticulture requires more labor than cereal crops, with research indicating it generates at least twice as much employment.
• Economic Benefits: Increased horticultural exports can boost economic growth, employment, and rural incomes, while also supporting smallholder inclusion.
• Women's Role: Women play a significant role in agricultural production, especially as men move to urban areas for work, and horticulture can improve their economic status.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for Central Asian countries to enhance their horticultural production and export capabilities to tap into the growing opportunities in China and Russia. It outlines the importance of policy reforms, infrastructure development, and capacity building in order to meet the high standards of international markets and increase the competitiveness of Central Asian horticulture exports.