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Pakistan Infrastructure Implementation Capacity Assessment (PIICA) - Demand-Supply Gap Analysis

Core Content

This document is part of the Pakistan Infrastructure Implementation Capacity Assessment (PIICA) study, focusing on the demand-supply gap analysis for the construction industry, particularly in the road, water, and irrigation sectors, and earthquake reconstruction activities. It provides an overview of the challenges and constraints facing the industry in terms of human resources, construction materials, and equipment.

Main Findings

1. Material Gaps

• Asphalt (Bitumen):

  • Local production is expected to remain at around 299,000 MT.
  • Total demand for asphalt is estimated to range from 395,000 MT in 2005 to 438,000 MT by 2010.
  • Demand for infrastructure projects (federal and provincial) is expected to increase from 246,000 MT in 2005-06 to 277,000 MT in 2009-10.
  • The demand-supply gap is estimated to be between 96,000 MT and 140,000 MT annually.
  • Exports to Afghanistan are expected to further affect asphalt availability.

• Cement:

  • Local production is around 23 million MT, with 10% exported.
  • The remaining 90% is consumed by the housing (50%), industrial (20%), and public sectors.
  • Cement demand for infrastructure projects is expected to range between 3.3 million MT and 6.7 million MT per year.
  • Local availability is estimated at 3.4 to 4.0 million MT per year.
  • The demand-supply gap is expected to be 2 to 3 million MT annually, requiring cement imports in the short term.

• Steel:

  • Total consumption in Pakistan was estimated at 4.7 million MT during 2004-05.
  • Domestic production of quality steel is around 1 million MT, with the rest (2.3 million MT) produced using imported scrap.
  • The remaining 1.4 million MT is met through imports.
  • Steel import requirements are estimated to vary between 2 million MT in 2006-07 and 3 million MT in 2009-10.
  • The gap between domestic production and demand is significant, and steel production may not meet the demand even with capacity expansion.

2. Equipment Gaps

• The existing construction equipment fleet is aging, with most equipment being 12 to 15 years old.
• There is a lack of detailed statistics on the equipment pool, and the classification system is inadequate, leading to delays and potential corruption.
• The MTDF 2005-10 requires an estimated 16,000 pieces of heavy construction equipment and 56,000 trucks.
• There is a likelihood of importing new and efficient equipment due to the aging fleet and lack of local capacity.

3. Human Resource Gaps

• Overall HR Needs:

  • An estimated 7,700 engineers, 62,000 skilled workers, 140,000 unskilled workers, and 1,000 administrative staff are required for the road, water, and irrigation sectors and earthquake reconstruction.
  • The peak demand is expected during 2006-07 and 2007-08.

• Engineers:

  • Of the 66,000 actively registered engineers, 72% are in civil, mechanical, and electrical engineering.
  • Civil engineers are of particular importance for infrastructure delivery, with about 19,500 currently active.
  • The number of engineers is declining, with approximately 950 engineers emigrating in 2005, and 975 in the first half of 2007.
  • If the trend continues, about 1,800 engineers would emigrate in 2007, or 70% of the 2005 production.

• Skilled Workers:

  • The demand for skilled workers is expected to increase significantly.
  • Emigration of skilled workers is a major concern, with a large number leaving for overseas employment.

• Unskilled Workers:

  • The demand for unskilled labor is also high.
  • Emigration of unskilled workers is reported, but less significant compared to skilled workers.

• Administrative Staff:

  • A smaller but essential requirement for administrative support.

4. Strategies to Address Gaps

• Importing: A significant number of materials and equipment will need to be imported to meet the growing demand.
• Reversing the Brain Drain: Efforts should be made to retain skilled professionals within the country.
• Increasing Enrolments: More training and education programs are needed to boost the number of professionals entering the industry.
• Improving Existing Pool: Enhancing the skills and efficiency of current professionals is crucial.

Key Information

• The MTDF (Medium Term Development Framework) outlines the infrastructure development plans for Pakistan up to 2010.
• The PIICA study includes various technical notes, such as assessments of the construction industry, stakeholder perceptions, and cost of doing business.
• The World Bank and its consultants conducted the study, highlighting the need for a comprehensive approach to addressing the infrastructure implementation challenges.
• The fiscal year in Pakistan is from July 1 to June 30.
• The currency unit is the Pakistan Rupee (PKR), with US$1 = PKR60.70 as of February 6, 2007.

Conclusion

The PIICA study identifies significant demand-supply gaps in the construction industry, particularly in human resources, major construction materials, and equipment. These gaps pose a challenge to the successful implementation of the infrastructure projects outlined in the MTDF. Addressing these issues requires a combination of strategies, including importing essential materials and equipment, reversing the brain drain, increasing training and education, and improving the efficiency of the existing workforce.