拉丁美洲经济委员会-_2025年拉丁美洲和加勒比经济概览_调动资源为发展筹资执行摘要（英）-2025_20页_480kb

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 Summary

Core Content

The Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2025 provides an in-depth analysis of the region's economic performance and challenges in 2024 and 2025, with a focus on resource mobilization for development. It outlines the need for a comprehensive and strategic approach to financing growth, addressing structural vulnerabilities and the implications of global economic trends.

Main Viewpoints

1. Fiscal Policy Challenges

• The region faces a structurally precarious fiscal situation with low tax revenue (21.3% of GDP) and a regressive tax system based on indirect taxes.
• Tax evasion is estimated at US$433 billion annually, and tax expenditures further erode fiscal space.
• Public investment has been treated as a fiscal adjustment variable since 2020, weakening the state's capacity to stimulate growth.
• ECLAC proposes an active fiscal policy based on five pillars:
  • Progressive tax reform
  • Reduction of tax evasion and reassessment of tax benefits
  • Sustained public investment
  • Improved spending efficiency
  • Strengthening fiscal institutions

2. Productive Transformation and Growth

• The trap of low growth capacity persists, requiring a productive transformation to close the financing gap for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).
• The financing gap is expected to widen from US$2.5 trillion (pre-pandemic) to US$3–4 trillion in 2025, and exceed US$6 trillion by 2030.
• Global reforms and private investment are critical to addressing this gap.
• The chapter emphasizes the need for:
  • Strengthening international tax cooperation
  • Reforming public debt management to consider investment needs
  • Enhancing financial safety nets through mechanisms like special drawing rights

3. Role of Development Banks

• Development banks play a critical role in financing strategic sectors and correcting market failures.
• They have five main functions:
  • Financing economic, social, and environmental projects
  • Supporting micro-, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs)
  • Developing financial sectors and capital markets
  • Acting as countercyclical financing sources
  • Identifying emerging productive sectors
• The region has a diverse ecosystem of development banks, including multilateral, subregional, and national institutions.
• Innovative financial instruments such as guarantee systems, digital financing, thematic bonds, and local currency financing are emphasized.
• Public-private partnerships and fintech integration are seen as key to increasing resource mobilization.

4. Global and Regional Trends

• Global GDP growth is expected to slow from 3.3% in 2024 to 3% in 2025, the lowest since the post-pandemic period.
• The United States will see the most pronounced deceleration, with GDP growth projected at 2%, due to political uncertainty, tariffs, and high interest rates.
• China's GDP growth is expected to fall below its official target of 5%, due to declining consumption, property crisis, and shrinking external demand.
• Emerging economies will see a slowdown in growth, and global trade in goods is expected to contract, affecting export-dependent regions like Latin America.

5. Exchange Rates and Liquidity

• The dollar has depreciated against other major currencies, despite rising Treasury bond yields.
• This unusual trend reflects uncertainty over the trade war, growing fiscal deficits, and increasing debt service payments.
• Monetary policy has been contractionary, with interest rates above pre-pandemic levels in most countries.

6. Economic Activity and Growth

• The region is experiencing a new economic slowdown, with GDP growth expected to fall from 2.3% in 2024 to 2.2% in 2025.
• Net exports contributed positively to growth in 2024 but are at risk of reversing in 2025 due to increased trade protectionism.
• Private consumption and investment are weak, with low job creation, low confidence, and high interest rates contributing to the slowdown.

7. Employment and Wages

• Employment growth remained low, in line with GDP growth.
• Formal employment increased slightly, reducing the regional informality rate to 46.3%.
• Unemployment decreased from 6.7% to 6.0%, with notable declines in Brazil, Colombia, and Jamaica.
• Real wages rose by 3.3% on average, supported by lower inflation and growth in higher-paying formal sectors.
• Gender gaps in employment persist, with women's employment rate 22 percentage points lower than men's.

8. Inflation and Prices

• Inflation is moderating, with a regional average of 2.9% in 2024 and 3.9% in June 2025.
• Core inflation increased to 3.8%, while food inflation eased slightly to 3.1%.
• Services inflation remained high, rising to 3.2%, while goods inflation (excluding unprocessed foods) fell to 2.5%.
• Inflationary pressures are driven by wage adjustments, price indexation, and rising costs in regulated sectors.

9. Fiscal and Debt Performance

• Fiscal space is limited, with interest payments rising to 3% of GDP in Latin America.
• Public debt remains high, at 50.2% of GDP in Latin America and 68.4% in the Caribbean.
• Public spending is expected to remain stable at 21.8% of GDP in Latin America and 30.3% in the Caribbean.
• The primary deficit in Latin America is expected to narrow to 0.1% of GDP, but the overall deficit remains at 3.1%.
• In the Caribbean, the overall deficit is expected to widen, while the primary surplus shrinks.

Key Information

• The Seville Commitment at the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development is a key opportunity for the region to advance sustainable development.
• Political will and cooperation among public, private, national, and international stakeholders are essential for implementing the proposed reforms.
• Financial innovation and improved financial education are crucial for supporting MSMEs and financial inclusion.
• Development banks are identified as a central actor in mobilizing resources for sustainable and inclusive development.
• Regional and subregional development banks focus on infrastructure, while national banks concentrate on financial inclusion and MSMEs.
• The statistical annex is available at [https://bit.ly/Economic Survey-2025](https://bit.ly/Economic Survey-2025).

Conclusion

The 2025 Economic Survey highlights the urgent need for fiscal reform, productive transformation, and enhanced international cooperation to address the region's development challenges. It underscores the importance of development banks, financial innovation, and inclusive policies in achieving sustainable growth and economic stability in the face of global uncertainty and structural vulnerabilities.