2018-重振美国与发展中国家的经济接触（英文版）-1mb

Summary of Renewing U.S. Economic Engagement with the Developing World

Core Content

This report, authored by Daniel F. Runde, Romina Bandura, and Owen Murphy, examines the evolving economic landscape in the developing world and the United States' inadequate response to it. It argues that the U.S. must adopt a more strategic and proactive approach to economic engagement with developing countries to maintain its global leadership and economic influence.

Main Points

1. A Changed Development Landscape

• The developing world has transformed over the past 25 years, with many countries no longer in need of foreign aid and instead seeking trade, investment, and economic partnerships.
• A significant portion of the population in developing countries is moving into the middle class, driven by urbanization and economic growth in countries like China and India.
• By 2050, more than 75% of the global population will live in urban areas, increasing the demand for infrastructure and services.
• The middle class in Asia and Africa is expected to grow substantially, creating new markets for U.S. goods and services.
• The private sector is now the main driver of economic activity and employment in developing countries, with foreign direct investment surpassing foreign aid in volume.

2. Waning U.S. Economic Influence

• The U.S. has lost its position as the primary trade partner for many developing countries, with the number dropping from 130 in 2006 to 76 in 2016.
• China has emerged as the dominant player in global development, becoming the top trading partner for 124 countries.
• China is actively engaging in the developing world through initiatives like the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), multilateral institutions such as the New Development Bank (NDB) and the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), and direct investments in infrastructure and trade.
• The U.S. is stepping away from regions like Africa, where it once had a strong presence, and is losing ground to other nations such as Japan, Germany, and India.

3. Inadequate U.S. Response

• The U.S. foreign aid system is outdated, uncoordinated, and lacks strategic vision.
• It has focused too heavily on health and food security, neglecting trade and investment policies.
• The U.S. has failed to effectively counter China's growing influence, relying on a passive strategy of making China a "responsible stakeholder."
• There is a lack of strategic focus and a "partnership" approach in U.S. engagement with developing countries.
• The U.S. has not adequately addressed issues like corruption and the rule of law in developing nations, which are critical for sustainable economic growth.

Key Recommendations

1. Develop a Strategic International Economic Strategy

• The U.S. should craft an international economic strategy that complements the proposed National Economic Security Strategy.
• This strategy should focus on integrating developing countries into the global economy, not just as recipients of aid but as equal partners.

2. Enhance the Use of Existing Tools

• The U.S. should use its existing development and trade tools more effectively.
• This includes adopting a more balanced approach to foreign aid and technical assistance, emphasizing trade and investment.
• The Export-Import Bank (EXIM) should be reformed to better support small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) and new sectors like services and ICT/digital.
• A third wave of enterprise funds should be authorized to complement existing programs like OPIC, MCC, and USAID.

3. Revamp the Development Finance Toolbox

• The U.S. should introduce a "whole of government" approach that encourages collaboration between development agencies and the private sector.
• Increase commercial engagement from U.S. embassies in key regions.
• Use more aggressive bilateral MOUs with associated financing, training, and commercial support.
• Establish new financing institutions such as the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (USIDFC) and a "U.S. Global Infrastructure Initiative."

Conclusion

• The U.S. must shift from a "donor-recipient" model to a "partnership" model with developing countries.
• To do this, it needs to better align its foreign aid strategy with trade and investment goals, enhance its engagement with the private sector, and counter China's growing influence through a more proactive and strategic approach.
• The U.S. has the potential to regain its economic leadership by focusing on mutual economic interests and fostering stronger, more equitable partnerships with developing countries.

Annex: Definitions

• Official Development Assistance (ODA): Financial aid provided by governments to developing countries for development purposes.
• Foreign Direct Investment (FDI): Investment from multinational corporations into developing countries.
• Bilateral Government MOUs: Memorandums of Understanding between the U.S. and developing countries to facilitate trade and investment.
• Development Finance Toolbox: A set of tools and strategies used to support development and economic engagement in the developing world.

About the Authors

• Daniel F. Runde: Senior Vice President and Director of the Project on Prosperity and Development at CSIS.
• Romina Bandura: Research Fellow at the Project on Prosperity and Development at CSIS.
• Owen Murphy: Research Fellow at the Project on Prosperity and Development at CSIS.