世界银行-全球代际收入流动_一个新的数据库（英）-2025.7_58页_3mb

Intergenerational Income Mobility Around the World

Abstract

This paper presents a new global database on intergenerational income mobility, covering 87 countries and 84% of the world's population. The database estimates income mobility using data from 156 surveys and the Two-Stage Two-LS (TSTSLS) method. Key findings include:

• Intergenerational income mobility varies widely, with lower mobility in developing countries.
• The Great Gatsby Curve (negative correlation between income mobility and inequality) holds across all countries, including developing ones.
• Income mobility positively correlates with national income, indicating higher mobility in richer countries.

Key Findings

Great Gatsby Curve

• The negative relationship between income inequality and intergenerational mobility is observed across 87 countries.
• Nordic countries exhibit high mobility and low inequality, while countries like South Africa and Guatemala show low mobility with high inequality.

Relationship with National Income

• Higher national income per capita is associated with better intergenerational income mobility, as countries grow wealthier.
• The positive correlation arises from factors like reduced credit constraints and increased public redistribution capacity.

Theoretical Predictions

• Income mobility is negatively correlated with returns to education and positively linked to the progressivity of public spending.

Comparison with RG’s Database

• The study’s measure (IGE) differs from Ray & Genicot’s upward mobility measure.
• While RG’s upward mobility is positively correlated with growth at low income percentiles, it shows a weaker relationship with inequality.

Conclusion

The database provides insights into the factors influencing intergenerational income mobility and highlights the need for policies like progressive taxation and better credit access to enhance mobility, particularly in developing regions.