德银-美股-宏观经济-美联储观察员：早期迹象表明通胀预期正在向上蔓延-20180122-6页_620kb

Fed Watcher: Early Signs Inflation Expectations Are Stirring Upwards

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of the Federal Reserve's recent statements and the current state of inflation expectations in early 2018. The report is authored by Deutsche Bank economists and associates, highlighting key insights from Fed officials and market data on inflation and economic indicators.

Main Points

• Fedspeak Summary: There was little new information from the Federal Reserve's recent communications, but some indications suggest inflation expectations may be moving upwards from recent lows.

• DB View: Deutsche Bank maintains its previous outlook of 4 interest rate hikes in 2018 and 3 in 2019.

• Key Fed Officials' Statements:

  • Williams: Expresses willingness to serve as Vice Chair if nominated.
  • Dudley: Warns of potential overheating due to tax cuts and notes that easy financial conditions persist despite rate hikes. He also suggests that inflation will gradually move towards the target.
  • Quarles: Announces plans to propose a leverage ratio adjustment "relatively soon" and suggests easing stress tests and living wills burdens.
  • Mester: Supports a non-binding comparison of policy to rules and linking forecasts to specific dots.
  • Evans: Notes strong growth but expresses concern about inflation. Supports no hikes through mid-2018.
  • Kaplan: Projects 2018 growth of 2.5–2.75%, mentions inflation pressures building but acknowledges headwinds from technology, and warns of overheating risks.

• Inflation Expectations:

  • Market inflation expectations are at or near several-year highs.
  • Short-run consumer inflation expectations have risen due to higher oil prices, while long-run expectations remain low.

• Events to Watch:

  • Jan 23: Senate confirmation hearing for Fed nominee Goodfriend, and Evans' remarks on unconventional monetary policy.
  • Jan 26: Bullard's speech on "Does a low interest rate regime harm savers?"

Key Information

• Inflation and Economic Outlook: The report suggests that inflation is becoming a growing concern, with some Fed officials indicating that it may drift upwards towards the target. However, the long-term inflation expectations remain subdued.
• Market Reactions: The rise in short-term inflation expectations is attributed to higher oil prices, which have a direct impact on consumer prices.
• Policy Implications: The Fed is expected to continue its tightening cycle, with 4 hikes in 2018 and 3 in 2019. The timing and pace of these hikes may depend on evolving economic data and inflation trends.
• Risk Factors: The document includes important disclosures regarding the risks associated with investing in financial instruments, such as fixed-rate bonds, derivatives, and foreign exchange products. These risks include macroeconomic shocks, FX fluctuations, and counterparty risks.

Appendices and Disclosures

• Important Disclosures: The report contains detailed information about the source of data, potential conflicts of interest, and the limitations of the analysis.
• Analyst Certification: The views expressed in the report reflect the personal opinions of the lead analysts and are subject to change.
• Additional Information: The document includes a variety of research products and highlights the importance of reviewing disclosures before making investment decisions.
• Regulatory Information: The report is distributed in compliance with local regulations in various jurisdictions, including the U.S., Germany, the U.K., Hong Kong, India, Japan, Korea, South Africa, Singapore, Russia, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Australia and New Zealand.

Conclusion

The report indicates that while the Fed's recent statements have not introduced significant new information, there are early signs that inflation expectations may be rising. This is supported by market data showing elevated inflation expectations and some Fed officials expressing concerns about inflationary pressures. The document serves as a comprehensive overview of current economic and policy conditions, along with important risk and disclosure notes for investors.