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Solomon Islands: Country Economic Memorandum Summary

Core Content

The Solomon Islands: Country Economic Memorandum – Unlocking New Sources of Economic Growth is a comprehensive analysis of the country's economic challenges and opportunities. Conducted by the World Bank between February 2023 and March 2024, the report identifies key constraints to growth and proposes actionable policy recommendations to unlock new sources of economic development.

Main Views

1. Economic Growth Performance

• Slow and Volatile Growth: Solomon Islands has experienced slow and unstable economic growth, with per capita income still significantly lower than in its structural peers.
• Historical Trends: The economy has long been driven by the logging sector, which is now in rapid decline.
• Growth Gap: Despite some progress, the country has not bridged the income gap created by past economic tensions. In 2022, per capita income was still 5 percentage points lower than in 1999 and less than one-fifth of aspirational peers.
• Growth Projections: Without reform, the country is unlikely to reach upper-middle-income status by 2050. A reform scenario could see it achieve this status by 2040.

2. Economic Geography Constraints

• Geographical Challenges: The country faces challenges due to its remote location, small and dispersed population, and poor transport infrastructure.
• Transport Connectivity: The transport network is underdeveloped, with poor road and maritime infrastructure, irregular shipping, and congestion at key points.
• Digital Connectivity: Only 17.5% of the population aged 12+ has internet access, which is geographically and gender-concentrated.
• Urbanization Issues: Rapid urbanization, particularly in Honiara, has led to increased unemployment and limited structural transformation.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Improve transport connectivity through infrastructure upgrades and climate-resilient planning.
  • Expand digital access via 4G technology and satellite innovations.
  • Implement urban planning reforms and enhance service delivery in Honiara.
  • Support provincial urban centers to reduce migration pressures.

3. Private Sector Development

• Formal Sector Concentration: The formal private sector is heavily concentrated in Honiara, with over 85% of registered businesses located there.
• Constraints to Private Sector Growth:
  • Land Use: 80% of land is customary and unrecorded, limiting access and exchange.
  • Labor Market Skills: 54% of workers are under-educated for their roles.
  • Access to Finance: Limited availability and high costs of capital.
  • Energy Costs: Electricity prices are among the highest globally, with low grid access.
• Business Environment: High regulatory compliance costs and reliance on physical processes contribute to informality.
• Recommendations:
  • Digitalize government-to-business services.
  • Improve access to finance for small and medium enterprises (SMEs).
  • Strengthen land administration and dispute resolution systems.
  • Enhance energy infrastructure and affordability.
  • Invest in workforce skills and education.

4. Sectoral Growth Opportunities

4.1 Agriculture

• Context: Agriculture is a vital sector, though limited in scale and productivity.
• Opportunities and Challenges:
  • High yield gaps for key commodities.
  • Poor infrastructure and limited access to markets.
  • Need for improved technology adoption and training.
• Recommendations:
  • Strengthen land tenure systems.
  • Invest in rural transport and market access.
  • Promote digital tools for market information and supply chain efficiency.

4.2 Fisheries

• Context: The tuna industry is a major export, but faces challenges such as IUU fishing and high production costs.
• Opportunities and Challenges:
  • Potential for increased productivity and value addition.
  • Need for better regulatory enforcement and cost reduction.
• Recommendations:
  • Improve fishery management and reduce IUU activities.
  • Support value chain development and export diversification.

4.3 Tourism

• Context: The sector is underdeveloped despite rich natural capital.
• Opportunities and Challenges:
  • High potential for growth with proper investment and planning.
  • Land-related constraints hinder development.
• Recommendations:
  • Develop tourism infrastructure and incentives.
  • Address land-related barriers to tourism expansion.

4.4 Labor Mobility and Migration

• Context: Migration to Honiara is high, but economic benefits are limited.
• Opportunities and Challenges:
  • Temporary labor mobility schemes can improve skills and productivity.
  • High costs and limited access to formal employment.
• Recommendations:
  • Expand labor mobility programs (e.g., PALM).
  • Improve workforce education and training.
  • Create more formal employment opportunities in the private sector.

Key Information

• Population: 721,000, spread across 90 inhabited islands.
• GDP Growth: Projected to average 3.2% from 2024–2050 without reform, far below the upper-middle-income threshold.
• Land Use: 80% of land is customary and unregistered, limiting investment and economic activity.
• Internet Access: Only 17.5% of the population aged 12+ has access, with gender disparities.
• Urbanization: Honiara's population doubled from 2009–2019, leading to increased unemployment.
• Private Sector: Micro-enterprises dominate, with 80% of businesses having fewer than five employees.
• Energy: Electricity costs are among the highest in the world, with low grid access.
• Digitalization: Can support financial inclusion, reduce gender disparities, and enhance productivity.
• Reform Potential: A comprehensive reform effort could significantly boost long-term growth through improved productivity, human capital, and private investment.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the need for a multi-faceted approach to economic development in Solomon Islands, focusing on improving transport and digital connectivity, enhancing the business environment, and addressing land, labor, and energy constraints. These reforms are essential to unlock new sources of growth and achieve sustainable development goals.