2025-06-10-Bernstein-惠特布雷德集团（WTB）_惠特布雷德第一季度预览_仍在下滑_但尚未出局_13页_549kb

Whitbread PLC (WTB.LN) Analysis Summary

• Rating: Outperform, with a price target of 3,600 GBp (representing a 27% upside).
• Trading Date: Whitbread will report Q1 2025 results on June 19, 2025.
• Estimate Change: Revisions cut 1Q LfL accommodation sales from -1% to -2.0%, marginally ahead of consensus (-2.6%), and shows slight (1.4%) outperformance relative to the -3.4% baseline market assessment (-3.4%).
• Market Context: UK M&E RevPAR slowed recently, primarily in London, while Germany showed improvement with Q1 RevPAR growth of 8% compared to 6% in Q4. H1-Q1 2025 sales are estimated closely with market data.
• Financials: 1Q revenue projected at £733 million (unchanged numerically but lower estimate-wise), EBITDA expected at £1,051 million in 2025. Overall financial metrics, such as revenue growth and EBITDA, remain positive for 2025, with 8 quarters of negative YoY occupancy likely ahead, signaling potential inflection point.
• Ratings and Risks: Fitch assigned negative outlook for 2026 due to potential leverage increase from AGP capex and buybacks, impacting ratings near BBB. Downside risks include international travel disruptions, UK recession, and German growth costs.
• Outlook: Confidence in pricing pressure easing and occupancy improving drove the Outperform rating, though no strong case for immediate Q1 as a turning point.