2021-10-08-国际战略研究中心-不要把制造业就业机会的减少归咎于贸易（英）_14页_316kb

Summary of "Do Not Blame Trade for the Decline in Manufacturing Jobs" by Stephen J. Rose

Introduction and Historical Context

• Manufacturing jobs are valued for their high pay, union support, and economic impact, particularly after WWII.
• U.S. manufacturing employment peaked during WWII and declined steadily due to factors like increased productivity, globalization, automation, and trade deficits.

Arguments Against Attributing Job Losses to Trade

• The study concludes that productivity gains, not trade, are the primary cause of declining manufacturing jobs.
• Trade deficits had a net negative employment effect of 3.5 million jobs (8.9 million displaced by imports vs. 5.4 million gains from exports) but this is small compared to overall U.S. job growth.
• Involuntary job losses due to domestic company decisions outweigh those from trade.

Role of Productivity and Innovation

• Innovation and automation drive productivity increases, allowing fewer workers to produce more goods, mirroring declines in agriculture.
• Factors like the IT revolution and containerization support global supply chains but do not significantly contribute to job losses on their own.

Economic Evolution and Sector Shifts

• Changes in manufacturing employment are dwarfed by shifts to services, with office and high-skill service jobs growing rapidly.
• Goods consumption declined due to productivity, freeing up labor for higher-paying services like health and education.

Key Findings on Trade and Employment

• Trade deficits (1999–2019) correlated weakly with unemployment; no consistent pattern exists linking trade deficits to job losses.
• Other countries, like Germany, also saw manufacturing job declines despite trade surpluses, indicating global drivers.

Conclusion

• Productivity, not trade, explains most manufacturing job declines; trade balance shifts may add minor jobs but do not solve low-wage issues.
• Policy focus should shift to supporting displaced workers via training and increasing minimum wage, as trade protectionism is ineffective.

Stephen J. Rose's Position

• The author argues for policies promoting domestic innovation and addressing inequality, rather than targeting trade.