20230306-招银国际-碧桂园服务-06098.HK-Is_it_time_to_bottom_fish_yet__3页_763kb

报告摘要

CG Services (6098 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides an equity research update on CG Services (6098 HK), focusing on its recent financial performance, outlook, and investment implications. The report suggests a BUY rating with a target price of HK$47.63, implying a potential upside of +197% from the current price of HK$16.04.

Key Financial Highlights

Earnings Summary (YE 31 Dec)

Revenue: RMB 15,600 (FY20A), RMB 28,843 (FY21A), RMB 43,303 (FY22E), RMB 61,955 (FY23E), RMB 86,155 (FY24E)
YoY Growth: 61.7%, 84.9%, 50.1%, 43.1%, 39.1%
Net Profit: RMB 2,686 (FY20A), RMB 4,033 (FY21A), RMB 5,662 (FY22E), RMB 7,863 (FY23E), RMB 10,899 (FY24E)
YoY Net Profit Growth: 55.7%, 31.1%, 32.2%, 38.9%, 38.6%
EPS: RMB 0.98 (FY20A), RMB 1.28 (FY21A), RMB 1.69 (FY22E), RMB 2.35 (FY23E), RMB 3.26 (FY24E)
P/E Ratio: N.A., N.A., 8.0, 6.0, 4.8
P/B Ratio: N.A., 15.6, 12.7, 9.2, 6.4
Yield (%): N.A., 0.8, 1.1, 1.5, 2.1
ROE (%): 18.4, 11.1, 14.1, 17.1, 20.1

Cash Flow Summary

Net Cash from Operating: RMB 6,709 (FY20A), RMB 8,148 (FY22E), RMB 10,899 (FY23E), RMB 561 (FY24E)
Capex: RMB -5,570 (FY20A), RMB -2,800 (FY22E), RMB -2,800 (FY23E), RMB -2,800 (FY24E)
Net Cash from Investing: RMB -5,526 (FY20A), RMB -2,800 (FY22E), RMB -2,800 (FY23E), RMB -2,800 (FY24E)
Net Cash from Financing: RMB 7,118 (FY20A), RMB -1,416 (FY22E), RMB -1,966 (FY23E), RMB -2,725 (FY24E)
Cash at the End of the Year: RMB 15,215 (FY20A), RMB 11,619 (FY21A), RMB 15,551 (FY22E), RMB 21,684 (FY23E), RMB 16,720 (FY24E)

Balance Sheet (YE 31 Dec)

Total Assets: RMB 31,204 (FY20A), RMB 66,813 (FY21A), RMB 81,069 (FY22E), RMB 100,228 (FY23E), RMB 111,345 (FY24E)
Total Liabilities: RMB 15,045 (FY20A), RMB 28,439 (FY21A), RMB 38,542 (FY22E), RMB 51,300 (FY23E), RMB 53,421 (FY24E)
Equity to Shareholders: RMB 14,566 (FY20A), RMB 36,187 (FY21A), RMB 40,043 (FY22E), RMB 45,941 (FY23E), RMB 54,117 (FY24E)

Key Ratios

Gross Margin: 34.0%, 30.7%, 29.5%, 29.1%, 29.3%
Net Margin: 17.2%, 14.0%, 13.1%, 12.7%, 12.7%
Effective Tax Rate: 25.1%, 23.3%, 23.0%, 23.0%, 23.0%
ROE: 18.4%, 11.1%, 14.1%, 17.1%, 20.1%
ROA: 8.6%, 6.0%, 7.0%, 7.8%, 9.8%
Current Ratio: 1.6, 1.3, 1.2, 1.2, 1.4
Receivable Turnover Days: 123, 197, 197, 197, 197
BVPS (RMB): 2.84, 2.46, 3.03, 4.20, 6.05

Investment Outlook

Recent Performance

Profit Alert: 2022E reported profits declined by -51% to -57% YoY, slightly below the most bearish market expectations of -50% to -7%.
Core Profit: Core profit grew by >5% YoY, with a slight miss compared to expectations of +7%.
Sales Recovery: Country Garden sales increased by +10% MoM in February, indicating a possible recovery.
Impairment: RMB2bn goodwill impairment was recorded in 2022, with limited risk of further impairment in 2023E.

Future Growth

2023E Growth: Net profit growth is expected to accelerate to double-digit levels with improving macroeconomic conditions and an assumed addition of 100mn sqm managed GFA.
Debt Concerns: Potential RMB700mn debt from the acquisition of Caixin Smart Life is considered manageable given the company's RMB8.8bn cash reserves.
Dividend Potential: The management may consider increasing the dividend payout ratio, currently at 30% in 2021.
Valuation: The report suggests buying at 8x 2023E PE (assuming 10% core profit growth), which is lower than the current 9x.

Share Performance

1-month: -15.2%
3-months: -14.3%
6-months: +15.2%
12-months: -64.6%

Shareholding Structure

Yan Huiyan: 36.1%
Pingan Insurance: 8.3%
Free float: 55.6%

Market Data

Market Cap (HK$ mn): 54,105
Avg 3 mths t/o (HK$ mn): 808.72
52w High/Low (HK$): 46.15 / 6.52
Total Issued Shares (mn): 3,373

CMBIGM Ratings

BUY: Potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
HOLD: Potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months
SELL: Potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months
NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIGM

Industry Outlook

OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark
UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark

Analyst Certification

The research analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect their personal opinions and that no part of their compensation is directly or indirectly related to the specific views in this report. The analyst has not traded in the stock covered in the past 30 days and will not do so for 3 business days after the report's release.

Risk Disclaimer

The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. It is not an offer to buy or sell securities and is subject to change. Investors should consult a professional financial advisor and independently evaluate their investments.

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