2012年-CEPS欧洲政策研究中心_Kazakhstans_voting_enthusiasm_2页_241kb

Kazakhstan's Voting Enthusiasm Summary

Core Content

The document analyzes the 3 April 2010 presidential elections in Kazakhstan, highlighting the lack of genuine political competition and the dominance of President Nursultan Nazarbayev. Despite widespread public participation, the election outcome was predetermined, with 95.5% of voters supporting the incumbent. This suggests that the high turnout was not a reflection of genuine political engagement but rather a result of external pressures and internal political control.

Main Observations

• Nazarbayev's Dominance: President Nazarbayev has remained in power since the dissolution of the Soviet Union and is expected to continue in office. His age and political legacy raise concerns about his ability to lead the country into a new era of modernization.

• Election Process and Irregularities:

  • The elections were seen as a formality, with no credible opposition.
  • Turnout was reported to be high, but this is viewed with skepticism due to the lack of competitive candidates.
  • The OSCE and other observers noted serious irregularities, including pressure on voters, carousel voting, and ballot stuffing.

• Opposition Response:

  • The opposition called for a boycott due to the short notice period and the mandatory Kazakh language test for candidates.
  • They shifted focus to the 2012 parliamentary elections, expecting that the incumbent would allow a second party to enter Parliament, even if it did not meet the 7% threshold.

• Public Support and Stability:

  • Nazarbayev's popularity is attributed to the stability and prosperity brought by oil-driven economic growth.
  • Many Kazakhs prioritize stability over democratic reforms, reflecting a broader regional trend where democratic ideals are not as highly valued as political continuity.

Key Information

• Turnout and Support:

  • Over 90% of eligible voters participated.
  • 95.5% of them voted for Nazarbayev, extending his term by five years.

• International Reactions:

  • The OSCE expressed concern and disappointment, stating that reforms necessary for genuine democratic elections have not materialized.
  • The EU and the US did not strongly criticize the elections, with the EU instead congratulating the people and expressing interest in a new partnership agreement.

• EU's Role in Kazakhstan:

  • The EU is an ideational power, with high living standards and cultural heritage, but has limited influence in Central Asia.
  • Increased contact through educational and diplomatic initiatives is expected to foster socialization and gradual alignment with EU values.
  • The EU's approach is seen as the most viable, despite its limited role in the region.

Conclusion

The 2010 elections in Kazakhstan underscore the entrenched political power of Nazarbayev and the absence of meaningful democratic competition. While the high turnout indicates a desire for participation, it does not equate to a genuine shift towards democracy. The EU's cautious and supportive stance reflects a balance between ideological values and pragmatic interests in maintaining relations with a key energy supplier. The document emphasizes the need for clear and critical engagement from the international community to promote democratic reforms in Kazakhstan.