2025-06-02-Jefferies-2025年第一季度职位列表与满意度监测_15页_633kb

Equity Research Summary: US P&C Insurance/Insurtech

Overview

Job listings among brokers are being monitored as a proxy for organic growth. Job listings decreased during the first quarter of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024 for most companies, though quarterly (QoQ) trends show mixed results. Changes in job listings are partially attributed to M&A activity and organizational changes.

Key Results

• Majority of Brokers Decline in Job Listings: Companies like AJG, AON, BRO, and WTW saw YoY declines in job listings. While AJG (+2% QoQ) and AON (+2% QoQ) showed slight QoQ increases, others like BRO (-13% QoQ) experienced drops.
• Correlation with Organic Growth: The correlation between job listings and organic growth is strongest during concurrent quarterly periods for most companies. Longer-term correlations weaken.
• Job Satisfaction: Most brokers reported plateaued or declining job satisfaction ratings, though AJG saw an uptick in satisfaction recently. BRO saw a decrease in satisfaction.
• Tailwind Factors: Existing policies on M&A or other growth catalysts influence forecasts (e.g., job hiring vs. other growth drivers).

Company-Specific Highlights

• AJG: 3% YoY job listing decline; strong correlation with organic growth during concurrent periods; slight improvement in job satisfaction.
• AON: Up 17% YoY in listings; strong concurrent correlation; rating plateaued but slightly declined.
• BRO: Listing decline slowed YoY but still down YoY; two-year revenue per employee flattened; job satisfaction declined QoQ.
• BWIN: Falling from a peak in 2022; weak correlation with organic growth; view as a younger company with more growth opportunities.
• MMC: Steeper drop in long-term listing-to-growth correlation; job satisfaction declined on a time-weighted basis.
• WTW: Listing decline continued YoY and QoQ; difficult to correlate job listings with organic growth due to historical disruptions.

Valuation & Ratings

• WTW is rated Buy due to potential for high returns.
• The majority of covered firms are rated Hold, reflecting mixed near-term prospects.

Investment Considerations

• Job listings remain an imperfect measure of organic growth requiring complementary data (e.g., revenue, pricing, team hires).
• Short-term M&A activity provides tailwinds but does not directly signal organic growth trends.
• Glassdoor data indicates a lack of recent improvement in workforce satisfaction for most firms.