2025-06-12-Jefferies-派点公司（PAY）_2025财年第一视角_L2S业务营收未达预期但利润符合预期_9页_469kb

PayPoint Equity Research Summary

• Report Overview: This report from Jefferies Equity Research provides a First View on PayPoint for FY25, delivered on June 12, 2025. The rating is BUY with an updated price target of 928p (up from 760p), reflecting analyst confidence despite a slight miss in FQ4 net revenue.

• FQ4 Performance:

  • Net revenue grew 2% year-over-year to £50m, missing Bloomberg consensus estimates by 6%, primarily due to an 8% year-over-year decline in L2S revenue.
  • However, underlying EBITDA was +5% y/y (£52m) with a 51% margin, and EPS, U-PBT, and earnings per share margins were in-line with expectations, indicating bottom-line resilience.
  • Key drivers included strong e-commerce growth (20% year-over-year, supported by partnerships like InPost and Royal Mail) and expansion of the UK retail network.

• Growth and Key Metrics:

  • E-commerce transactions surged 33% y/y to 133.4m, fueled by strategic investments and partnerships.
  • Total sites increased by 5% y/y to 30.7k, contributing to higher billings (£368m year-end, dominated by Love2shop and Park Christmas Savings).
  • L2S reached £14m net revenue, but the segment underperformed.

• Outlook and Ambitions:

  • FY26: EBITDA target of £100m (vs. consensus £96m); revenue growth expected to continue at around 6%.
  • FY28 Ambition: Achieve 5-8% annual organic growth, enhanced cost control through automation, and a 20% capital reduction via share buybacks (targeting at least £30m/year).
  • Financials aim for improved leverage (target net leverage of 1.2-1.5x) and a cover ratio increase to >2.0x by FY28.

• Investment Action: Analyst call scheduled for 09:30 BST. Jefferies recommends initiating or maintaining a BUY position based on potential undervaluation at a 10x multiple.

• Risks: Rapid shift away from cash-based solutions, macroeconomic uncertainty, and execution risks post-integration of strategies. PayPoint also faces competitive pressures with large customers like Allegro and Amazon potentially reducing reliance.