2025-06-11-Bernstein-Stitch_Fix公司（SFIX）_Stitch_Fix第三季度_重回增长_13页_544kb

报告摘要

Rating: Market-Perform, with a price target of $4.50 per share.
Recent Performance: Stitch Fix returned to slight revenue growth in Q3 after 12 consecutive quarters of declines, driven by improvements in key metrics such as revenue per active client (RPAC), average order value (AOV), and keep rate. AOV grew by 10% YoY, extending a 7-quarter growth streak.
Guidance Update: Q4 revenue is expected between $298m and $303m, with adj. EBITDA of $3m to $7m. FY25 revenue is now forecast between $1.254bn and $1.259bn, with adj. EBITDA of $43m to $47m.
Outlook for FY26: Revenue growth is not expected until 2026 due to lapping effects, with adj. EBITDA projected to decline slightly but with improving underlying metrics like AOV and client metrics. Management is confident in driving sustainable growth through assortment improvements and tariff mitigation strategies, despite macro challenges and potential margin compression.
Investment Implications: The Market-Perform rating reflects progress in non-linear growth but highlights risks from tariffs, consumer demand slowdown, and operational execution. The company remains focused on long-term value proposition and client retention.
Financial Highlights: Key metrics include gross margins easing to 44.2% YoY, adj. EBITDA beating expectations, and active client count declining slightly in Q4 due to seasonality. Revenue and profitability metrics show steady improvement but still face headwinds.

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