深度-欧洲安全研究所-火与冰！俄土伙伴关系（英文）-2021.6-70页_4mb

Summary of "FIRE AND ICE: The Russian-Turkish Partnership"

Core Content

This Chaillot Paper by the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS) analyzes the Russian-Turkish partnership, focusing on its dynamics, resilience, and implications for Europe. The paper outlines three main arguments: the partnership is a mix of fierce competition and cooperation, it is sufficiently resilient but not immune to disruption, and it poses both challenges and opportunities for the EU.

Main Viewpoints

• Nature of the Partnership: The relationship between Russia and Turkey is characterised by a "conflictual camaraderie," where both countries exhibit authoritarian tendencies, similar strategic cultures, and a shared opposition to Western influence. Despite their rivalry, they have developed a cooperative framework, especially in managing regional flashpoints.

• Economic Interdependence: Economic ties are a key pillar of the partnership. Both countries benefit from trade, investment, and energy cooperation. However, these ties are not as robust as their relations with the EU, and the future of their economic collaboration could be affected by shifts in regional dynamics and the increasing pivot of both to Asia.

• Geopolitical Strategy: Russia and Turkey are both active in multiple regional theatres, including the Middle East, North Africa, the Balkans, and the Black Sea region. Their strategic presence and influence are often aimed at countering Western and NATO interests, and they frequently use a combination of military, diplomatic, and economic tools to achieve their goals.

Key Information

Similarities Between Russia and Turkey

• Authoritarian Regimes: Both countries are led by strong, centralized authority, with political power concentrated in the hands of the president. Opposition is neutralized through co-optation and repression.

• Strategic Culture: They both emphasize sovereignty in international relations and seek to reduce dependence on the West. They are also seen as rising powers in their respective post-imperial spaces.

• Civilisational Discourse: Russia and Turkey use historical and religious narratives to legitimize their foreign policy ambitions. Russia promotes the concept of a "Russian world," while Turkey advocates for a more inclusive vision of the Islamic world and the Ottoman legacy.

• Military and Coercive Tactics: Both countries employ a mix of traditional and non-conventional means, including military presence, local proxies, and cyber operations, to advance their interests.

Differences Between Russia and Turkey

• Political Systems: Turkey has a longer democratic tradition and has experienced competitive elections and coalition governments, while Russia is a consolidated autocracy with a more rigid and repressive political structure.

• Economic Structures: Russia's economy is resource-based, whereas Turkey's is more industrial and service-oriented. Turkey is more open to foreign investment and trade, but also more vulnerable to external shocks. Russia's economy is less open but more stable.

• Ideological Orientation: Russia's nationalism is more state-driven and inclusive, while Turkey's national identity is based on strict ethno-linguistic terms and has historically been more focused on the Muslim world and the Ottoman legacy.

• Relations with the West: Turkey has a more complex and fluctuating relationship with the West, driven by its aspirations for EU membership and NATO alliance. Russia, on the other hand, views the West as an existential threat and has been more hostile, particularly since the early 2000s.

Implications for the EU

• The Russian-Turkish partnership challenges the EU's strategic interests, especially in terms of promoting democracy, energy security, and regional stability.
• Their growing influence in the Middle East, North Africa, and the Balkans complicates the EU's foreign policy and security strategies.
• The EU must rethink its approach to this "tandem" and adopt a more tailored and coordinated strategy, combining engagement, leverage, and pushback.

Future Outlook

• The partnership is likely to remain resilient but could face disruption due to internal political changes, regional shifts, or external pressures.
• The pivot to Asia may reduce the economic significance of the Russian-Turkish relationship.
• Sanctions and other forms of economic coercion could lead to a sectoral decoupling of the two economies.
• A transatlantic response is necessary to counter the influence of Russia and Turkey and to protect European interests.

Recommendations

1. Limit Hostile Activities: The EU should take more robust measures to prevent Russian and Turkish actions that threaten European security.
2. Customised Strategy for Turkey: A more tailored approach towards Turkey could enhance cooperation and reduce tensions.
3. Use Coercive Tools: Sanctions and other economic tools should be used strategically when necessary.
4. Enhance Transatlantic Coordination: A more coordinated response between the EU and the US could improve the effectiveness of European policy towards both countries.

Conclusion

The Russian-Turkish partnership is a complex and multifaceted relationship that has evolved over time, shaped by shared authoritarianism, economic interdependence, and strategic competition. While it is not without challenges, it is a significant factor in the geopolitical landscape of Europe and the broader international system. The EU must adapt its approach to this partnership to safeguard its interests and promote stability in the region.